MCViewPoint

Opinion from a Libertarian ViewPoint

Posts Tagged ‘boom and bust’

The Controlled Demolition Of Nation-States

Posted by M. C. on June 30, 2023

Why would nations give a bunch of global bankers a monopoly to control the supply of money, when that awesome power allows them to impoverish and manage everyone else?  Why would politicians who claim to care about income inequality perpetuate a system that specializes in producing income inequality?  The answer is simple: governments are concerned exclusively with power and do not care about preserving democratic ideals, personal freedom, or the livelihoods of their people.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/controlled-demolition-nation-states

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN

Submitted by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,

Generally speaking, central banks are empowered to control the supply of money by employing a number of tools that include buying government debt, selling government bonds, adjusting reserve requirements, and setting official interest rates.  Operating under various legal mandates to sustain an overall healthy economy, central banks ostensibly pursue policies that will produce relatively low inflation, steady economic growth, and low public unemployment.  

What if these stated goals are merely talking points meant to justify a central bank’s continued monopoly over a nation’s creation of money, and the true objective of any central bank is to maximize wealth for the wealthiest economic players?  Central banks, after all, are usually institutionally independent from government interference.  They are private firms managed by the world’s financial elite.  How might a central bank pursue a hidden agenda to grow the wealth of its friends at the public’s expense?

The easiest and most effective way would be to create artificial “boom and bust” cycles during which economies greatly expand and then quickly shrink.  How does this work in practice?  First, a central bank lowers interest rates — the cost of borrowing money — and thereby encourages ordinary citizens to take out loans.  These loans are used to buy houses and cars and start small businesses.  By artificially lowering interest rates below the natural market rate, central banks stimulate consumer purchases and small business expenditures beyond what Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” would have rendered on its own.  Investors who have an economic interest in selling houses, cars, and inventories for small businesses all benefit from the central bank’s intervention.

Additionally, because central banks have encouraged borrowing, they have pumped more money into the greater economy.  With the supply of money artificially increased, some individuals are willing to pay more now than before for the same goods or services.  Consequently, the prices of goods and services increase, producing inflation.  There are two important effects stemming from inflation: (1) a middle-class citizen on a fixed income must now pay more for living expenses, while (2) a higher-class citizen who owns stocks, homes, and other assets will see the currency-denominated value of those assets increase.  In other words, inflation acts as a tax on poorer individuals who own little and a supplement for wealthier individuals who own much.  While a middle-class citizen living paycheck-to-paycheck will effectively have less income, a higher-class citizen whose principal wealth exists in the form of assets will have increased net wealth.  Inflation effects a wealth transfer from the poor to the rich.

Now, a central banker will insist that artificially low interest rates and easy borrowing have made it possible for consumers to own more things and for fledgling entrepreneurs to start small businesses that would have otherwise never existed.  A less charitable description would be that low interest rates have induced ordinary citizens to buy things that they cannot afford, take on long-term debt, and risk their financial futures on business start-ups that may well fail.  Sometimes those risks pay off and produce rags-to-riches success stories.  When interest rates suddenly rise, however, they often end with unpaid bills and the eventual bank seizure of those cars, homes, and business assets.  A central bank’s easy money programs momentarily increase consumer ownership and small business creation before inviting financial distress and repossession as rent, payroll, inventory expenses, and other fixed costs increase.

During the “boom” side of the cycle, central banks produce a lot of momentary “winners” and increase overall national wealth by encouraging consumer spending and inflating the currency-denominated value of assets.  During the inevitable “bust” side of the cycle, however, the real winners emerge when the super-wealthy scoop up a bankrupt population’s primary assets for pennies on the dollar.  

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Deflation: Bad for the Government, Good for Producers and Consumers. What’s Not to Like?

Posted by M. C. on April 15, 2022

Deflation is only bad for the government. In a deflationary economy, it cannot tax people indirectly via inflation and it can’t use monetary policy to artificially boost the economy and get votes before there is the inevitable recession. Consumers (mainly the poorer) and entrepreneurs are the ones who benefit from deflation (due to lower prices and larger profit margins, respectively).

https://mises.org/wire/deflation-bad-government-good-producers-and-consumers-whats-not

Andre Marques

Governments lie about the inflation rate and benefits from it, so, it is no surprise when they talk against deflation (for the purpose of this article, assume inflation as a general increase in prices and deflation as the opposite), which would be good for consumers and the economy, but bad for the government. (While Austrian Economists define inflation as an increase in the supply of money, the net effect of inflation is an increase in asset prices, as well as a distortion of the structure of production.)

Prices fall in a scenario where the currency is not inflated and, therefore, there are more sustainable investments and increased productivity. In an economy with little or no government intervention (at least few monetary interventions and few regulations, government spending and taxes), there are more long-term investments (capital investments, for example), which increase the economy’s productivity. In a deflationary economy, the purchasing power of money tends to increase, as there is no monetary inflation by central banks and prices tend to fall. Consumers can purchase more products and services and companies have higher profit margins.

But governments do not like deflation, they are the most indebted entities. Inflation is beneficial to borrowers, as they repay loans in a currency with lower purchasing power than when they took the loan. It is even more beneficial to the government since it can expand the money supply to pay the debt. Furthermore, inflation is good for the government because it creates an apparent economic boom, which will eventually be wiped out by a recession. But, as this can take a few years, the short-term incentive for the incumbents is to take advantage of this instrument.

Two typical arguments given by governments against deflation are as follows:

“Deflation Will Cost Entrepreneurs”

The reasoning behind this statement is that, if prices fall, entrepreneurs will sell products and services at lower prices than the cost to produce them. However, this statement does not hold if we consider the fact that, in a deflationary economy, the currency’s purchasing power tends to increase. So even if entrepreneurs get less money (nominally) than what their products cost, in real terms, they will still make a profit. In addition, the prices of the inputs used in production will also fall in a deflationary economy.

Therefore, with the use of productivity and management of expenses that every company must have, it is possible to sell the products at low prices, but with the same or even higher profit margin than in an inflationary environment. (Note: even if we disregard this gain in purchase power and lower production costs, it would be possible for the entrepreneur to protect himself through future contracts). And, precisely because prices get lower, consumers buy more products and services (without going into debt) and companies profit more due to the reduction in costs that occurs thanks to deflation. This is particularly the case in the technology sector. Computers today are cheaper and much better than they were 30 years ago. Because prices got lower (due to increased productivity), consumers began to buy more, which increased the industry’s profits, which brought more investments and higher productivity.

“Consumers Will Postpone Consumption under Deflation”

The reasoning behind this argument is that if prices are constantly falling, no one will buy the products and services because individuals will always expect prices to go down. This also does not make sense, as there are always products and services that people have to purchase (such as food and medicine). Nobody starves themselves to death or does not purchase medicines because a year later they will be cheaper. 

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