Our rulers, like they forgot how to negotiate and how to rule generally, also seem to have forgotten the “carrot” part of the trite but true “carrot and stick” metaphor for managing relationships with other countries. In the case of Taiwan, it simply isn’t possible to defend militarily from mainland China, nor is it possible to inflict economic pain on China without hurting ourselves as much or more than China.
https://libertarianinstitute.org/articles/peace-with-china-is-the-only-way-to-protect-taiwan/
by Brad Pearce
–FILE–National flags of China and the United States are seen in Ji’nan city, east China’s Shandong province, 14 June 2018. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He arrived in Washington D.C. on Monday afternoon for the upcoming high-level economic and trade consultations with the U.S. Liu, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chief of the Chinese side of the China-U.S. comprehensive economic dialogue, leads a delegation with members from the major economic sectors of the Chinese government.
It has been observed by many that the main foreign policy difference between the American political parties is a disagreement over which other super power to hate more. For the Democrats, it has been a deranged obsession with Russia for several years now. For the Republicans, of course, it is the Chinese whom we must hate and fear.
To the extent that some Republican candidates are better on Russia-Ukraine than the Biden Administration, it is almost entirely driven by their stated desire to instead use those military resources against China. I will concede that as long as one insists on viewing the world as a “global chessboard,” the obvious move is to draw closer to Russia as a hedge against a rising China, but that is both a reductionist view that downplays the real benefits of cooperation and, perhaps more importantly, that ship has long since sailed.
Overall, Republican politicians—and the American right generally—want us to fear China in every sphere where one could fear a country, from silly video sharing apps to drugs to world military domination. Most of all, we are told we must have an antagonistic policy towards China to protect the unrecognized state of Taiwan from Chinese aggression. However, a U.S. policy of antagonism towards Beijing only puts Taiwan at greater threat from the government of the People’s Republic of China. The truth is that it is not possible for the United States to militarily defend Taiwan against China. Taiwan can only be protected through maintaining good relations with China so that any benefits of China invading Taiwan are outweighed by the economic and diplomatic costs.
Since Richard Nixon adopted the “One China” policy 50 years ago, U.S.-China policy has been based on an inherent contradiction. The United States views the People’s Republic of China as the sole government of China, including Taiwan. However, it has given what amounts to a security guarantee to the so-called “Republic of China,” the government of Taiwan, which itself claims all of China. This system has held surprisingly well given the weight of its own ridiculousness, but in an era where American power is fading while China takes its place among the leaders of the world, it has become ever more fragile. All of this would be hard enough to manage under competent, steady leadership. Instead, the United States is ruled by irresponsible, foolish people who should not be trusted to be in charge of anything, least of all to guide a nuclear superpower through changing times.
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