Why has the eurozone lagged the United States and other developed economies in recent years? The enormous stimulus packages, including the 2009 Growth and Job Plan, the Juncker Plan, the New Green Deal, and the Europe Next Generation, are proving that central planning only delivers poor growth, elevated debt, and now high inflation.
If there is a lesson for the United States and the rest of the world, it is that massive central planning does not deliver growth and that governments do not lead economic development and innovation. The eurozone would benefit from a supply-side, bottom-up approach to the economy. Unfortunately, it is doubling down on central planning.
https://mises.org/wire/eurozone-example-failed-keynesianism
The eurozone economic figures show the risk of stagflation, and the short-term impact is clear in Germany and France, but it extends to the rest of the countries.
Why has the eurozone lagged the United States and other developed economies in recent years? The enormous stimulus packages, including the 2009 Growth and Job Plan, the Juncker Plan, the New Green Deal, and the Europe Next Generation, are proving that central planning only delivers poor growth, elevated debt, and now high inflation.
The ECB’s latest figures show that monetary aggregates are starting to moderate, but inflation remains high and, in the latest print, is rising.
Consensus estimates of GDP growth in 2023 stand at 0.6% with inflation above 5%, according to Bloomberg, and it is important to remember that core inflation continues to be three times higher than the target of price stability.
Lagarde’s inflation messages seem clear, but the ECB’s target must be met. and interest rate increases are here to stay, although the market estimates that the ECB will start lowering interest rates by 2024. The problem is that the eurozone is only betting on rate hikes to moderate inflation, while governments continue to spend billions of euros on so-called Next Generation Funds and deficits that mean more inflation or taxes in the future.
We should not be surprised that credit in the eurozone is falling along with monetary aggregates. The entire burden of monetary normalization is falling on the productive sector, families, and businesses, while many governments continue to increase deficit spending.
The figures for growth in the eurozone are very poor, but they are even worse when we take into account that Ireland’s progress, as shown by Eurostat, almost entirely explains the most recent upward revision. What does the eurozone do? Instead of incentivizing the economic freedom model, it subsidizes the intervened ones.
The economy is expected to grow slightly in 2023, plagued by high inflation, rising interest rates, and lower exports. The Next Generation funds have no discernible marginal or multiplier effect.
The weak state of manufacturing and service indices confirms this fear. PMIs show a widespread negative trend in new orders and investment.
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