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https://mises.org/wire/media-focus-mass-shootings-shows-disconnect-actual-crime-trends-0

Ryan McMaken

Following last weekend’s Gilroy, California shooting during which three victims died, media outlets have begun to suggest again that murder is a growing reality in the lives of Americans.

For example, the Associated Press ran an article titled “U.S. already has nearly 20 mass killings in 2019,” suggesting the threat of dying in a shooting is becoming an ever-more-likely fate in America. USA Today took it a step further with an article titled “Not an unreasonable fear: Mass shootings such as the one at Gilroy Garlic Festival more numerous, deadly.”

Articles like these combine to send to the message that homicides are a growing part of American life. Moreover, these sorts of articles have had the intended effect.

As the Pew Research Center has noted, [i]n a survey in late 2016, 57% of registered voters said crime in the U.S. had gotten worse since 2008.” At least some of these poorly conceived estimates of crime trends can likely be attributed to an ongoing media focus on mass shootings. But as we shall see, mass shootings are but a very small part of larger crime trends. And, the overall trend has been downward for decades.

The homicide rate in America in recent years has been around half of what it was in the early 1990s.

Indeed, for Americans born in the 1970s or after, the last few years have been the least homicidal years of their lives.

It is true that nationwide homicide rates have increased since 2014’s 51-year low, rising from 4.4 homicides per 100,000 people in 2014 to 5.3 per 100,000 in 2017. But, the most recent data we have suggests 2018 may be another down year for homicides.1

According to preliminary crime data from the FBI for 2018, homicides and violent crime were both down in the first half of 2018, compared to the previous year.

Full-year stats for 2018 will become available in September.

From January to June of 2018, there were 6.7 percent fewer murders, and 4.3 percent less violent crime overall.

This decline follows a three year period during which murders rose form the previous year (in the first half of the year). But the preliminary data and the full-year data do not always match up. For example, the first half of 2017 showed an increase in homicides, although homicides ended up being down for the full year of 2017.

Trends can change at any time, of course. But for now, the data points toward a continued overall trend toward less homicide in the United States.

Nor is this trend just limited to homicides. This is important to note because sometimes observers of homicide data suggest homicides have only lessened because medical science means fewer assaults result in death.

But we can also see that violent crime in general — including aggravated assaults — are down considerably from earlier peaks…

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