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Posts Tagged ‘Homicide rates’

Homicide Rates in 2020 Surged to a 24-Year High. It’s Another Sign of a Failing Regime. | Mises Wire

Posted by M. C. on November 18, 2021

https://mises.org/wire/homicide-rates-2020-surged-24-year-high-its-another-sign-failing-regime

Ryan McMaken

By mid 2020, it was already becoming clear that the United States was experiencing a spike in crime. Indeed, by midyear, numerous media outlets were already reporting remarkably large increases in homicide in a number of cities. It was clear that if then current trends continued, homicide rates in the United States would reach levels not seen in over a decade.

With full-year data for 2020 now available on the FBI’s Crime in the United States report, we can see that those predictions were right. According to the report, the homicide rate in the United States rose to 6.5 per 100,000 in 2020, which is the highest rate reported since 1997—a twenty-four-year high.

Moreover the increase from 2019 to 2020 was one of the largest increases the US has experienced in ninety years. For similar increases in a similarly short period of time, we must go back to the 1960s—or even the 1940s. In other words, this is not normal. If the current trend continues, the US could find itself back experiencing homicide growth not experienced since the late 1960s and early 1970s.

It remains to be seen, however, if this is a temporary spike or part of a longer trend. If it is a spike, we can expect homicide rates to fall back to around 5 per 100,000, as had become a common experience over the past decade. If it is just a spike, then we can blame the surge in homicide on short-term events such as the covid lockdowns or the Black Lives Matter riots. If the surge is part of a larger trend, however, we’ll need to look to more broad and permanent causes for a satisfactory explanation.

But finding the causes of larger trends in homicide rates is no simple matter, and ideological groups tend to use movements in homicide rates as “proof” of the correctness of their preferred political hobby horses. 

There is compelling evidence, however, that trends in crime are driven largely by how the public views the legitimacy of the regime and its institutions. In short, the theory rests on the idea that crime increases when a jurisdiction’s residents do not respect government institutions and do not believe that government institutions can provide safety or administer justice in a fairly reliable way.

If the United States is indeed at the beginning of an upward trend in homicide, it might be more evidence of what many already suspect is happening: trust in American political institutions is falling, and consequently fear of private crime and social disorder is rising.

Homicides: Some Historical Perspective

In order to get some perspective on these trends, however, we have to look at historical movements in homicide rates.

There is significant disagreement over the measurement of homicide rates in the early twentieth century, and data is especially spotty before the FBI established the Uniform Crime Report system in 1930. There is much more consensus, however, that homicide rates were high by today’s standards during the early 1930s. These rates began to decline rapidly after 1934, and this began a long downward trend in homicide that lasted until the late 1950s. This trend bottomed out at 4 per 100,000 in 1957. By 1965, homicide rates had begun a rapid ascent, climbing from 4.6 per 100,000 in 1963 and peaking at 9.8 per 100,000 in 1980. Homicide rates remained at elevated levels throughout the 1980s, but went into steep decline after 1993, reaching 4.4 per 100,000—a fifty-one-year low—in 2014.

homicidehistorical
Source: Uniform Crime Reporting Program; Vital Statistics of the United States: 1965–1979; Vital Statistics of the United States: 1939–1964.

Since 2014, however, the homicide rate has increased by more than 45 percent.

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America’s Out Of Control Teens Are On A Historic Crime Spree

Posted by M. C. on February 17, 2021

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/americas-out-of-control-teens-are-on-a-historic-crime-spree/

by Michael Snyder

Young people are running wild all over the country, and nobody seems to be able to come up with a solution to slow down the violence.  Following the tragic death of George Floyd, teens were disproportionally involved in the rioting, looting and arson that erupted in major cities throughout the nation for the remainder of 2020.  And sometimes they would just take out their frustrations on random people on the street.  But in addition to violence that was spurred by social movements, most of our urban areas also experienced dramatic spikes in their murder rates.  In fact, one recently released report found that murder rates rose by an average of 30 percent in 34 of our largest cities…

THE HOMICIDE RATE across 34 American cities increased by 30% on average during 2020, according to experts, as the U.S. reeled from the coronavirus pandemic and widespread protests against police brutality.

The newly released report from the National Commission on COVID-19 and Criminal Justice found that homicides rose in 29 of the 34 cities studied and that the three largest cities in the sample – New York, Los Angeles and Chicago – accounted for 40% of the additional homicide victims in 2020.

That 30 percent average increase was the biggest one year spike ever recorded, and way too much of the time these murders are being committed by Americans under the age of 20.

For example, two Milwaukee teens were just charged with the rape and murder of a young woman named Ee Lee…

Kamare Lewis, 17, and Kevin Spencer, 15 each face one count of first-degree intentional homicide, as party to a crime and one count of first-degree sexual assault (great bodily harm), as party to a crime.

Lee was found Sept. 16, 2020 in Washington Park by “bystanders,” still breathing but unconscious, severely beaten and left for dead. She was undressed below the waist, indicating sexual assault. She suffered severe contusions to the face/head. A hospital examination confirmed the sex assault.

Lee later died from her injuries on September 19th.

But it wasn’t just Lewis and Spencer that were involved in this brutal attack.  In fact, we are being told that a total of 11 youths were seen leaving the area

Video from the Washington Park Library showed 11 people leaving the park — six in a group on bicycles; five in a separate group, some on bikes and others on foot.

Sadly, young girls are also murdering one another.

Here is an example of one young girl stabbing another young girl to death

Lyric D. Stewart, 14, of Rock Island, was stabbed to death Dec. 30 during a fight in the 1200 block of 11th Street.

Jimena Jinez, 18, also of Rock Island, was arrested in the early morning of Dec. 31, 2020, and charged with first-degree murder in the stabbing death. She has been in custody in Rock Island County Jail since then, and is being held on $1.5 million bond.

Our nation is degenerating right in front of our eyes, and it is only going to get worse.

In Jacksonville, Florida a group of teens recently ganged up to kill three people, including a very young mother

In the first time since a Washington Heights triple-murder, the family of one of the victims, Sara Urriola, is speaking out. The Jacksonville mother was murdered by four suspected teens at the Calloway Cove apartments.

“We have lost a loving, caring, wife, mother, daughter, niece, cousin, sister, aunt, best-friend and friend today. Sara loved her friends and family very much and the friends that knew her know she was all about the well-being of her family. She loved to dance, dress up, and enjoyed all family events,” the family said in a statement to Action News Jax.

How twisted do you have to be in order to do something like that?

Horrific murders like this happen day after day, but they barely make a blip on the news anymore because they have become so common.

Meanwhile, carjackings are on the rise all over the nation as well.

According to NPR, the number of carjackings in Minneapolis more than tripled last year…

In Minneapolis, for example, there were 405 carjackings last year — more than triple the number in 2019. The suspects arrested were often juveniles between the ages of 11 and 17.

Other cities saw huge increases too, including New Orleans; Kansas City, Mo.; Louisville, Ky.; and Washington, D.C. Last year in Chicago, there were 1,400 carjackings.

Speaking of Chicago, there are certain parts of the city that now resemble a war zone.  If you are in the wrong place at the wrong time, there is a good chance that a kid could stick a gun in your face and demand the keys to your vehicle.

What would you do if this happened to you?

On a sunny January afternoon, Amy Blumenthal drove to her Chicago home after picking up groceries. She turned off a street and into an alley, backed her car into her garage and started unloading the bags.

“All of a sudden, I heard something and looked up and there was a boy with a COVID mask on holding a gun just inches from my face,” Blumenthal says. He demanded she hand over her keys. Another young male, also wearing a mask, told her to hurry up.

Amy Blumenthal was not prepared to face this sort of a scenario.

She eventually pulled herself together enough to give her two attackers the car keys, and she was later totally shocked to find out that they were both under 16 years of age

In shock, she fumbled as she complied — they let her keep her house keys. Then they jumped in the car and sped off. Chicago police officers noticed their erratic driving, gave chase and the two were quickly arrested after crashing the vehicle into a building.

The robbery had left her shaken, but learning more about who they were left her stunned: They were just 15 and 13 years old.

Thanks to decades of running in the wrong direction, this is what our country has become.

We have become a completely and utterly lawless nation from the very top to the very bottom, and yet we continue to refuse to see the error of our ways.

So the fabric of our society will continue to unravel, and the thin veneer of civilization that we all take for granted on a daily basis will continue to disappear.

***Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

About the Author: My name is Michael Snyder and my brand new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available on Amazon.com.  In addition to my new book, I have written four others that are available on Amazon.com including The Beginning Of The EndGet Prepared Now, and Living A Life That Really Matters. (#CommissionsEarned)  By purchasing the books you help to support the work that my wife and I are doing, and by giving it to others you help to multiply the impact that we are having on people all over the globe.  I have published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse BlogEnd Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and the articles that I publish on those sites are republished on dozens of other prominent websites all over the globe.  I always freely and happily allow others to republish my articles on their own websites, but I also ask that they include this “About the Author” section with each article.  The material contained in this article is for general information purposes only, and readers should consult licensed professionals before making any legal, business, financial or health decisions.  I encourage you to follow me on social media on FacebookTwitter and Parler, and any way that you can share these articles with others is a great help.  During these very challenging times, people will need hope more than ever before, and it is our goal to share the gospel of Jesus Christ with as many people as we possibly can.

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Media Focus on Mass Shootings Shows Disconnect from Actual Crime Trends | Mises Wire

Posted by M. C. on August 3, 2019

https://mises.org/wire/media-focus-mass-shootings-shows-disconnect-actual-crime-trends-0

Following last weekend’s Gilroy, California shooting during which three victims died, media outlets have begun to suggest again that murder is a growing reality in the lives of Americans.

For example, the Associated Press ran an article titled “U.S. already has nearly 20 mass killings in 2019,” suggesting the threat of dying in a shooting is becoming an ever-more-likely fate in America. USA Today took it a step further with an article titled “Not an unreasonable fear: Mass shootings such as the one at Gilroy Garlic Festival more numerous, deadly.”

Articles like these combine to send to the message that homicides are a growing part of American life. Moreover, these sorts of articles have had the intended effect.

As the Pew Research Center has noted, [i]n a survey in late 2016, 57% of registered voters said crime in the U.S. had gotten worse since 2008.” At least some of these poorly conceived estimates of crime trends can likely be attributed to an ongoing media focus on mass shootings. But as we shall see, mass shootings are but a very small part of larger crime trends. And, the overall trend has been downward for decades.

The homicide rate in America in recent years has been around half of what it was in the early 1990s.

homicide_2017_0.PNG

 

Indeed, for Americans born in the 1970s or after, the last few years have been the least homicidal years of their lives.

It is true that nationwide homicide rates have increased since 2014’s 51-year low, rising from 4.4 homicides per 100,000 people in 2014 to 5.3 per 100,000 in 2017. But, the most recent data we have suggests 2018 may be another down year for homicides.1

According to preliminary crime data from the FBI for 2018, homicides and violent crime were both down in the first half of 2018, compared to the previous year.

Full-year stats for 2018 will become available in September.

From January to June of 2018, there were 6.7 percent fewer murders, and 4.3 percent less violent crime overall.

annual_change_prelim.PNG

 

This decline follows a three year period during which murders rose form the previous year (in the first half of the year). But the preliminary data and the full-year data do not always match up. For example, the first half of 2017 showed an increase in homicides, although homicides ended up being down for the full year of 2017.

Trends can change at any time, of course. But for now, the data points toward a continued overall trend toward less homicide in the United States.

Nor is this trend just limited to homicides. This is important to note because sometimes observers of homicide data suggest homicides have only lessened because medical science means fewer assaults result in death.

But we can also see that violent crime in general — including aggravated assaults — are down considerably from earlier peaks…

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Australia’s Gun Laws and Homicide: Correlation Isn’t Causation | Mises Wire

Posted by M. C. on March 23, 2019

That is one of the problems with government and regulation. “This has changed for the better since this law was passed.” It could very well be “This” was happening for 30 before the law passed, you have to find that out for yourself.

In my area and PA in general the free market had eliminated a majority of establishments where smoking was permitted via avoidance. The government stepped in with regulation and declared victory when 90% of the job was already done.

https://mises.org/wire/australias-gun-laws-and-homicide-correlation-isnt-causation

In the wake of the March 15 New Zealand shootings, advocates for new gun restrictions in New Zealand have pointed to Australia as “proof” that if national governments adopt gun restrictions like those of Australia’s National Firearms Agreement, then homicides will go into steep decline.

“Exhibit A” is usually the fact that homicides have decreased in Australia since 1996, when the new legislation was adopted in Australia.

There are at least two problems with these claims. First, homicide rates have been in decline throughout western Europe and Canada and the United States since the early 1990s. The fact that the same trend was followed in Australia is hardly evidence of a revolutionary achievement. Second, homicides were already so unusual in Australia, even before the 1996 legislation, that few lessons can be learned from slight movements either up or down in homicide rates.

A Trend in Falling Rates

As noted by legal scholar Michael Tonry,

There is now general agreement, at least for developed English-speaking countries and western Europe, that homicide patterns have moved in parallel since the 1950s. The precise timing of the declines has varied, but the common pattern is apparent. Homicide rates increased substantially from various dates in the 1960s, peaked in the early 1990s or slightly later, and have since fallen substantially.

This was certainly the case in the United States. US homicides hit a 51-year low in 2014, falling to a level not seen since 1963. This followed the general trend: peaking in the early 1990s, and then going into steep decline. And yet, we can’t point to any new national gun-control measure which we can then claim caused the decline. In fact, the data suggests gun ownership increased significantly during this period.

homicide_51yr_0.jpg

Source.

Australia followed the same pattern, although national homicide data collection was spotty before the early 1990s:…

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