Worth viewing just for the description of the fraud that is fractional reserve banking.
Also…Why does the government hate gold?
For the faint of heart this is about…economics!
https://substack.com/inbox/post/138403200
Be seeing you
Posted by M. C. on October 30, 2023
Worth viewing just for the description of the fraud that is fractional reserve banking.
Also…Why does the government hate gold?
For the faint of heart this is about…economics!
https://substack.com/inbox/post/138403200
Be seeing you
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: Austrian Business Cycle, fractional reserve banking | Leave a Comment »
Posted by M. C. on April 28, 2021
So how do the Fed’s shenanigans hurt banks? “The thing about quantitative easing, if you take it in a technical way, the Fed is taking duration out of the market. You can think of duration as another way of talking about bond, risk, or the ability to buy an asset that pays you over time. When the Fed’s doing that, they’re making all of these assets more scarce, and they’re forcing the prices up and the yields down. By definition, the available return of what’s left for a bank to buy is less. That’s what it comes down to.”
https://mises.org/wire/thanks-fed-high-risk-small-time-borrower-becoming-thing-past
Banks and accounting trickery go together. Last year, as I remember back to my banking days, financial institutions followed the advice once proffered by one of our board members, “If we’re going to the dump, let’s take a full load.”
When the pandemic struck, banks dumped plenty in their loan-loss provisions, $60 billion, expecting the worst. The cavalry arrived led by Jerome Powell’s Fed liquidity flood, Steven Mnuchin’s Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans, Congress’s Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, and moratoriums on foreclosures and evictions. Instead of an Austrian business cycle cleansing, the cracks were papered over, including bailing out money market funds, allowing us to watch the pandemic comfortably on TV.
Here we are a year later and banks are rocking their earnings by adding back the money that had been put away for the predicted rainy covid day. Appearing on Real Vision’s Daily Briefing with Jack Farley, bank analyst extraordinaire and Ludwig von Mises fan Chris Whalen said the future of banks could be dim or worse. Mentioning bank darling JPMorgan, Whalen pointed out, “[Y]ou take the reserve release out, their revenues are down year-over-year. Their earnings would have been down year-over-year, and nobody on Wall Street really gets past the first paragraph in the press release, so they don’t bother with this stuff.”
Finding a friendly, promiscuous banker is impossible these days as regulators fight the last war, meaning “banks are continuing to see their assets run off. In other words, they’re not originating new loans fast enough to keep up with the loans that are either being redeemed or prepaying early. A lot of early prepayments, especially in business loans, that kills banks,” Whalen said.
While consumer numbers look good, the lurking problem is commercial real estate. While hiding in plain sight the heavy hand of the government is “letting the banks let these borrowers go [in] the hope that they come back.” Hope is not a good strategy, but “the bank doesn’t want the building. The bank doesn’t want the shopping mall. They’re giving these people time. But I think it’s a mistake, because especially in big cities, we’re going to have to restructure this real estate.”
A person might think the more loan-loss reserves, the better. Whalen says no. Auditors and regulators argue about it all the time. Bank auditors are on red alert for stashing cash in the reserve to smooth earnings or sandbag earnings for tax purposes. Regulators want all the reserves a bank can put away.
“The really big question mark is businesses, urban real estate, multifamily real estate, apartments that haven’t had people paying their rent, all of these are going to be problematic,” Whalen told Farley. “Then down the road, and I mean six months, 12 months down the road, not very far, we got to start thinking about municipal finance, because all the money that Congress put on the table to help New York, help Chicago, that’s going to be gone very quickly.”
The bank analyst said real estate was behind most commercial loans. Regulators, and therefore bankers, love owner-occupied real estate, believing those loans as safe as can be. But in a pandemic, with storefronts boarded up, how safe are they?
In the banking big picture, the Fed’s monetary manipulations are sending the business toward oblivion. “As the banks have grown, their earnings return on earning assets, which is probably the most important thing you look at with any bank that has been falling. It’s fallen 20 basis points in the last three years. We’re down to about 70 basis points,” Whalen said. “I keep telling people if the Fed doesn’t change their policy, by the end of this year, the banks are going to be in trouble.”
Banks aren’t in the risk business anymore. As Whalen told Real Vision, “banks are running away from consumers, the consumer is toxic. The only time a bank wants to face a consumer is if it’s an affluent consumer, a bigger mortgage, high FICO score, low LTV [loan-to-value], cut a loan, no risk.” Other than credit card lending, there is no margin in the lending business anymore.
Back to the loan impairment issue. What banks don’t know is whether their loan books will perform after the government moratoriums are lifted. Says Whalen, “[B]y the summer, the fall, you’re going to be in a position where the auditor is going to force the banks to really start recognizing whether the assets are permanently impaired. That’s when I think we’re going to have to come to Jesus in terms of credit costs.” So, some of that loan-loss reserve money, which conveniently propped up earnings today, may have to be replenished, or worse, the losses may have to be recognized tomorrow.
So how do the Fed’s shenanigans hurt banks? “The thing about quantitative easing, if you take it in a technical way, the Fed is taking duration out of the market. You can think of duration as another way of talking about bond, risk, or the ability to buy an asset that pays you over time. When the Fed’s doing that, they’re making all of these assets more scarce, and they’re forcing the prices up and the yields down. By definition, the available return of what’s left for a bank to buy is less. That’s what it comes down to.”
Whalen worries about the Fed and about Janet Yellen at the Treasury, “because these people are playing with a prayer book that’s 30 years old. They don’t really understand how much has changed in this market, and how their manipulation of the market has destroyed price discovery, has destroyed risk metrics. We don’t know what we’ve got here. The only way we’re going to find out is if the Fed ever stops buying, but I don’t think they can. I think the Fed will be buying Treasury bonds forever.”
The Fed is taking the US economy where Europe is, with no freely trading bond market. If Powell is successful, Whalen believes the US will be mired in slow growth and, “[f]rankly, we would have a revolution in this country. You give that a couple of years, and we would be hanging Fed governors from lampposts on Constitution Avenue, which could happen anyway.”
Being Real Vision, Farley had to ask about cryptocurrencies, and Whalen pulled no punches. He believes they are a form of fraud, but “if they want to trade Beanie Babies, great. I think that’s fine.” And he doesn’t believe crypto is decentralized, saying three people in North Korea and China using free electricity are manipulating crypto markets.
Whalen parts with Austrians in saying money is a function of government entities. “You can’t take politics out of money,” he said. “Anybody who makes that argument to you, you know that they’re a child, and that they don’t get it. Countries with strong currencies have big armies and usually nuclear weapons. That’s the way it works.”
The Fed and Treasury are scary, banks are slowly failing, and crypto is a fraud. Other than that, it’s the end of the world and I feel fine. Author:
Douglas French is former president of the Mises Institute, author of Early Speculative Bubbles & Increases in the Money Supply, and author of Walk Away: The Rise and Fall of the Home-Ownership Myth. He received his master’s degree in economics from UNLV, studying under both Professor Murray Rothbard and Professor Hans-Hermann Hoppe.
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Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: Austrian Business Cycle, Federal Reserve, FICO, liquidity | Leave a Comment »
Posted by M. C. on October 23, 2020
“Achieving legislative power and political influence,” he said,
should not be our goal. Most of the change, if it is to come, will not come from the politicians, but rather from individuals, family, friends, intellectual leaders, and our religious institutions. The solution can only come from rejecting the use of coercion, compulsion, government commands, and aggressive force, to mold social and economic behavior.
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/10/lew-rockwell/wisdom-from-a-master/
America today confronts an unprecedented crisis. Our economy is collapsing, and the fake coronavirus ”epidemic,” with its Draconian restrictions, is destroying our liberty. What can we do? We’re fortunate that Dr. Ron Paul, our greatest living American, has provided a masterful diagnosis and offers us hope for a cure—if only we will listen.
The End of Unearned Opulence sums up and extends Ron’s message that he has given us in his many years of devoted service. In the book, he speaks of the “Faustian bargain” that Nixon imposed on the American people when he abandoned convertibility of the dollar into gold in 1971. He offered us fifty years of fake prosperity, but inevitably, the bill from the devil came due. In telling us about this, Ron talks about the great German writer Johann Wolfgang Goethe and how he modified the Faust legend. As I read this, I thought about Goethe’s finishing his great play Faust in the wisdom of his later years. Ron has in like fashion offered us in this book his mature wisdom.
What is Ron’s message for us? He says, “The opulence of unearned wealth has been exposed. The grave danger we now face can no longer be denied. What we are witnessing today is what happens to a society when counterfeit wealth dissipates. . .A Ponzi scheme mentality which has existed for decades allows for constant pyramiding of debt as part of our fiat monetary system. This policy is a predictable event and is instrumental in the creation of financial bubbles. Fractional reserve banking is a major contributing factor in creating money out of thin air, which inflates the debt bubble. Much of the malinvestment that results appears as wealth, but is in reality an illusion that disappears with the bursting of the bubble.”
The Austrian business cycle theory of Mises and Rothbard shows irrefutably that this policy won’t work. Why then has it been imposed on us? Ron gives us the answer. It benefits the crony capitalists—the opposite of genuine free market entrepreneurs—who are in bed with the government. He says, “The humanitarian claim of the welfare/ warfare proponents is that their efforts have always been designed to care for the poor. The only problem is that as financial bubbles develop, the already wealthy receive most of the benefits. . .The huge bailouts in the 2008 recession saw the banks and mortgage companies benefitting while individuals lost their homes. With today’s lockdowns we see the large corporations avoiding the worst regulations and permitted to operate, while the mom and pop businesses go broke.”
Why do people allow that mad and evil policy to continue? Ron answers that the government deludes people with crusades against imaginary enemies, in order to gain more control over us. First and foremost, Ron is a critic of the warfare state. Ron is not a pacifist – an ancient charge against those who oppose constant war. He believes in the right to self-defense, but he does not believe in the initiation of violence, whether by private criminals or the state.
Still, this is the issue strategists would have had him avoid. Just talk about the budget, talk about the greatness of America, talk about whatever everyone else was talking about, and you’ll be fine. And, they neglected to add, forgotten.
But had Ron shied away from this issue, there would have been no Ron Paul Revolution. It was his courageous refusal to back down from certain unspeakable truths about the American role in the world that caused Americans, and especially students, to sit up and take notice.
Worried about the budget? You can’t run an empire on the cheap. Concerned about TSA groping, or government eavesdropping, or cameras trained on you? These are the inevitable policies of a hegemon. In case after case, Ron pointed to the connection between an imperial policy abroad and abuses and outrages at home.While still in his thirties, Murray Rothbard wrote privately that he was beginning to view war as “the key to the whole libertarian business.” Here is a key way Ron Paul has been faithful to the Rothbardian tradition. Time after time, in interviews and public appearances, Ron has brought the questions posed to him back to the central issues of war and foreign policy.
Inspired by Ron, libertarians began to challenge conservatives by reminding them that war, after all, is the ultimate government program. War has it all: propaganda, censorship, spying, crony contracts, money printing, skyrocketing spending, debt creation, central planning, hubris – everything we associate with the worst interventions into the economy.
But Ron Paul permanently changed the nature of the discussion on war and foreign policy. The word “nonintervention” rarely appeared in foreign-policy discussions before 2007. Opposition to war was associated with anti-capitalist causes. That is no longer the case.
In our present crisis, Ron brilliantly extends his point. The fake coronavirus menace has become the means by which the state criminals can distract the public from its disastrous economic policies and put us under their control. As Ron says, “The goal of the hysterical reaction to the coronavirus, from both local and national politicians, has been to distract from the much bigger crisis we face dealing with: the Fed’s responsibility for the economic collapse and its hunger for unlimited power. The fact that responding to the exaggerated coronavirus crisis made the economic downturn much worse was not a disappointment to those individuals who see economic turmoil as an opportunity to promote radical Marxist ideas.”
Ron is of course a medical doctor, and he speaks with authority when he tells us that the health crisis is phony. “The coronavirus epidemic is not the bubonic plague. . . It’s now recognized that much of the data reported on the severity and extent of the disease was seriously flawed and misleading. The reports inevitably made it appear that the epidemic was much worse than it was. To many observers, this was more than just careless mistakes but rather a concerted effort to spread fear and panic. This effort amazingly led to a delusional and extreme reaction by the media, politicians, public health fanatics, drug companies, national and global governments, supporters of socialism, fascism, and Marxism, all promoting the infamous lockdown.”
As if this wasn’t bad enough, the Marxist BLM and antifa are rioting and looting while leftwing elements in government aid and abet their revolutionary tactics. “Antifa, BLM, and cultural Marxism’s concerted efforts to topple the remainder of the American Republic means, ‘they smell blood!’”
We thus face a dire situation, but Ron inspires us to change things. I had the rare honor of serving as Ron Paul’s congressional chief of staff, and observed him in many proud moments in those days, and in his presidential campaigns. People today sometimes compare Ron Paul with Bernie Sanders. The comparison of Bernie to Ron goes like this: both launched insurgent, anti-establishment presidential campaigns while in their 70s, shook up their respective party establishments, and attracted large youth followings. But Bernie is no Ron.
Just on the surface: Bernie is a grump and difficult to work with; Ron is a kindhearted gentleman who always showed his appreciation for the people in his office.
More importantly, Ron urged his followers to read and learn. Countless high school and college students began reading dense and difficult treatises in economics and political philosophy because Ron encouraged them to. Ron’s followers, meanwhile, were curious enough to dig beneath the surface. Is the state really a benign institution that can costlessly provide us whatever we might demand? Or might there be moral, economic, and political factors standing in the way of these utopian dreams?
It’s not hard to cultivate a raving band of people demanding other people’s things, as Bernie Sanders does. Such appeals arouse the basest aspects of our nature, and will always attract a crowd. It’s very hard, on the other hand, to build up an army of young people intellectually curious enough to read serious books and consider ideas that go beyond the conventional wisdom they learned in school about government and market. It’s hard to build up a movement of people whose moral sense is developed enough to recognize that barking demands and enforcing them with the state’s gun is the behavior of a thug, not a civilized person. And it’s hard to persuade people of the counter-intuitive idea that society runs better and individuals are more prosperous when no one is “in charge” at all.
Yet Ron accomplished all these things. Ron knew that the philosophy of liberty, when explained persuasively and with conviction, had a universal appeal. Every group he spoke to heard a slightly different presentation of that message, as Ron showed how their particular concerns were addressed most effectively by a policy of freedom.
Before leaving Washington and electoral politics, Ron delivered an extraordinary farewell address to Congress. The very fact that Ron could deliver a wise and learned address only goes to show he was no run-of-the-mill congressman, whose intellectual life is fulfilled by talking points and focus-group results.When Ron first spoke to the so-called values voters, for example, he was booed for saying he worshipped the Prince of Peace. The second time, when he again made a moral case for freedom, he brought the house down. But he did not pander to them nor to anyone else, and he never abandoned the philosophy that brought him into public life in the first place. No one had the sense that there was more than one Ron Paul, that he was trying to satisfy irreconcilable groups. There was one Ron Paul.
That a farewell address seemed so appropriate for Ron in the first place, while it would have been risible for virtually any of his colleagues, reflected Ron’s substance and seriousness as a thinker and as a man.
In that address Ron did many things. He surveyed his many years in Congress. He made a reckoning of the advance of the state and the retreat of liberty. He explained the moral ideas at the root of the libertarian message: nonaggression and freedom. He posed a series of questions about the US government and American society that are hardly ever asked, much less answered. And he gave his supporters advice on spreading the message in the coming years.
“Achieving legislative power and political influence,” he said,
should not be our goal. Most of the change, if it is to come, will not come from the politicians, but rather from individuals, family, friends, intellectual leaders, and our religious institutions. The solution can only come from rejecting the use of coercion, compulsion, government commands, and aggressive force, to mold social and economic behavior.
I am convinced that historians, whether or not they agree with him, will continue to marvel at Ron Paul for many, many years to come. Libertarians a century from now will be in disbelief at the very notion that such a man actually served in the US Congress of our time. America 2020 the Survi… Stansberry Research Best Price: $26.98 Buy New $31.86 (as of 05:20 EDT – Details)
One of the most thrilling memories of the 2012 campaign was the sight of those huge crowds who came out to see Ron. His competitors, meanwhile, couldn’t fill half a Starbucks. When I worked as Ron’s chief of staff in the late 1970s and early 1980s, I could only dream of such a day.
Now what was it that attracted all these people to Ron Paul? He didn’t offer his followers a spot on the federal gravy train. He didn’t pass some phony bill. In fact, he didn’t do any of the things we associate with politicians. What his supporters love about him has nothing to do with politics at all.
Ron is the anti-politician. He tells unfashionable truths, educates rather than flatters the public, and stands up for principle even when the whole world is arrayed against him.
Of course, Ron Paul deserves the Nobel Peace Prize. In a just world, he would also win the Medal of Freedom, and all the honors for which a man in his position is eligible.
Young people are reading major treatises in economics and philosophy because Ron Paul recommended them. Who else in public life can come close to saying that?
No politician is going to trick the public into embracing liberty, even if liberty were his true goal and not just a word he uses in fundraising letters. For liberty to advance, a critical mass of the public has to understand and support it. That doesn’t have to mean a majority, or even anywhere near it. But some baseline of support has to exist.
That is why Ron Paul’s work is so important and so lasting.
Ron concludes The End of Unearned Opulence with these challenging words: “Ideas whose times have come cannot be stopped by armies or political chicanery. Considering the intelligence and character of our enemies, it should never be said that us not resisting we capitulated to their evil nonsense. We are indeed in unchartered waters surrounded by blood-thirsty sharks.” With Ron’s wisdom and courage, we can escape those waters.
The Best of Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr. Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr. [send him mail], former editorial assistant to Ludwig von Mises and congressional chief of staff to Ron Paul, is founder and chairman of the Mises Institute, executor for the estate of Murray N. Rothbard, and editor of LewRockwell.com. He is the author of Against the State and Against the Left. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: Austrian Business Cycle, Dr. Ron Paul, fake coronavirus, tsa | Leave a Comment »
Posted by M. C. on November 26, 2019
Rather, it is Austrian economics and the Austrian Business Cycle theory that shows how sustained artificially low interest rates are a precondition for both record setting skyscrapers and the Skyscraper Curse
Easy money funds projects that shouldn’t happen and we don’t need.
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2019/11/mark-thornton/the-next-curse/
Zero Hedge reports “China’s Skyscraper Boom Comes Crashing Down Amid Developer Default,” noting reports that construction work was recently halted on the nation’s potentially tallest skyscraper, after the developer defaulted on a payment to the construction company.
They then invoked the Skyscraper Index which they describe: “The index is simple; the world’s tallest buildings are often constructed or completed at economic turning points, right before or just as the downturn gets underway.” The Skyscraper Curse is the economic crises that ensues with every new world record.
As I describe in my book, The Skyscraper Curse: And How Austrian Economists Predicted Every Major Economic Crisis of the Last Century, the Skyscraper Index has a remarkably accurate record dating back to the late 19th century.
The book is actually two short books, the first one on the Skyscraper Curse, which explains the theory and history of the Skyscraper Index. The second half demonstrates that Austrian economists also have a remarkable record of predicting economic crises, but one that is not based on the Skyscraper Index. Rather, it is Austrian economics and the Austrian Business Cycle theory that shows how sustained artificially low interest rates are a precondition for both record setting skyscrapers and the Skyscraper Curse
The theory is that artificially low interest rates induce more borrowing for longer term investment projects such as research and development on new technologies, pharmaceutical drug projects, and of course long-term real estate projects, like skyscrapers. My book provides a detailed analysis of how low rates impact skyscrapers, but the most important point is that skyscrapers are just a good example of what is going on throughout much of the economy.
The article is correct that there is a great deal of building super tall skyscrapers in China, but is unclear if the stalled construction would have set a new record in China and certainly it would not set a world record. If it would have set a new Chinese record, then it would still indicate an economic crisis is coming to China soon.
No matter, the stalled Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia was set to become a new world record skyscraper, originally expected to be completed in 2020, which is when we can expect the next Curse to begin.
The fundamental case for an economic crisis in the near future should be obvious. Central banks around the world have implemented ultra-low interest rate policies. In fact, a large portion of government bonds are now being financed at negative nominal rates, which is unprecedented. Many people manning Wall Street, hedge funds, and banks have never experienced a Federal Funds rate of 3%, which was the norm the previous half century.
Debt levels are at historic highs whether it is government debt, business debt, or individual debt. Debt levels tend to rise with low interest rates and expending economies, i.e. the artificial boom phase of the economy, only to become the most painful aspect in the economic crisis, i.e. government austerity budgets, corporate restructuring and bankruptcy, and bankruptcy, foreclosure, and unemployment for individuals.
Anecdotally, I am seeing buildings built taller, more spending on research and development, and newer companies poaching employees and customers from older companies.
The crisis usually begins when we see more stories about unexpected higher costs and lower revenues. While nothing about the next crisis is obvious to all—it never is–the stock markets will render their judgements.
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: Austrian Business Cycle, Central Banks, Skyscraper Boom, Skyscraper Curse, ultra-low interest | Leave a Comment »