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Posts Tagged ‘Economists’

Doug Casey on How Economic Witch Doctors Convince Everyone They’re Neurosurgeons

Posted by M. C. on December 11, 2021

Where to start? In my opinion, the best-done single book that you can read about economics is Henry Hazlitt’s Economics in One Lesson. It’s only about 150 pages, and it’s a gem. Everybody should read it.

https://internationalman.com/articles/doug-casey-on-how-economic-witch-doctors-convince-everyone-theyre-neurosurgeons/

by Doug Casey

International Man: The average person doesn’t care about economics. But to the extent that he does, he only reads mainstream publications like The Economist and editorials in The New York Times.

In these publications, the average person will find so-called economists advocating upside-down and destructive concepts like negative interest rates, banning cash, debt-fueled consumption, government spending, and rampant money printing as the cures to economic ailments.

And if those methods don’t work—or inflict damage—the establishment economists’ response is to simply call for more money printing, more debt, and even lower interest rates.

What’s your take on conventional economic thinking and methods?

Doug Casey: Frankly, most “economists” today are only political apologists masquerading as economists.

An economist is somebody that describes the way the world works—how people go about producing, consuming, buying, selling, and living their lives. That’s not, however, what most of today’s PhD economists do. Instead, they prescribe the way they would like the world to work and tailor theories to help politicians demonstrate the virtue and necessity of their quest for more power.

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Economics In One Lesson Is Still the Best Layman’s Intro to Economics | Mises Wire

Posted by M. C. on March 6, 2021

Hazlitt believed two predispositions impeded people from recognizing the broader impacts of decisions: (1) self-interested pleadings for special treatment and (2) the persistent tendency to see immediate effects and overlook secondary consequences.

https://mises.org/wire/economics-one-lesson-still-best-laymans-intro-economics

Fergus Hodgson

A line in a recent National Post news story left me aghast: “Economists are nearly unanimous in their support for the $381-billion deficit Ottawa plans to run in 2021.” One of Canada’s more reasonable newspapers, founded by Conrad Black, published the outlandish notion that unprecedented Keynesian deficit spending is plain-vanilla economics.

This assertion, no doubt the honest belief of the reporter, reflects an opaque field lacking bearings. As Alexander Salter of Texas Tech University recently wrote in a Wall Street Journal commentary, the field has “lost itself in data.” Celebrating the life of UCLA economist William Allen, who passed away in January, Salter wrote: “Allen truly believed in economics—something that is hard to say about most economists these days…. Economics is increasingly less scientific and more susceptible to political influence.”

One way to grasp the gradual splintering, confusion, and manipulation within the field is to consider two disparate books for the layman: Economics in One Lesson (1946) and Naked Economics (2002). The former, by Henry Hazlitt, has for many years been familiar to me as a canon of both economics and liberalism. The latter was recommended reading for my MBA program at Rice University.

Charles Wheelan, author of Naked Economics and a Dartmouth College lecturer, is a well-read, thoughtful gentleman. His more recent book, Naked Statistics (2013), does an honorable job of making statistics accessible, clear, and meaningful.

However, his earlier work “for people who never studied economics” fails to distill the most fundamental elements of the discipline. Rather, it is a broad survey that delivers a muddy message, reflecting what has come of academic economics. By taking on too many topics and engaging in political rhetoric—belittling critics of US federal overreach, for example—he sets himself up for failure. Many readers have no doubt come away from Naked Economics more confused than when they went in.

Wheelan goes astray right from the first chapter: “Economics starts with one very important assumption: individuals act to make themselves as well off as possible.” Although there is a grain of truth there, the foundational principle of economics is scarcity, which necessitates tradeoffs and resource allocation. Gregory Mankiw of Harvard University notes in Principles of Economics—in its ninth edition and the most popular economics textbook in the United States—that “economics is the study of how society manages its scarce resources.”

In contrast to Wheelan, Hazlitt takes on a humble objective: to deliver an “unblushingly ‘classical,’ ‘traditional,’ and ‘orthodox’” synthesis of economics. This is the most fitting way to approach the layman, who will only retain a few lessons from an introductory book. Hazlitt offers just one lesson.

Hazlitt believed two predispositions impeded people from recognizing the broader impacts of decisions: (1) self-interested pleadings for special treatment and (2) the persistent tendency to see immediate effects and overlook secondary consequences.

In his canon, his singular goal is to ferret out fallacies by overcoming those two predispositions. After seventy-five years, the simplicity and clarity of his book mean it has stood the test of time—without any need for a revision or update. Economics in One Lesson is still the book I recommend to anyone seeking an economics primer.

Naked Economics will not stand the test of time, despite the title, which implies just the bare bones of economics. Wheelan perhaps never intended it to become a canon. He gets into the weeds of topical content, focusing heavily on current and recent events in the United States. Further, despite being the founder and cochairman of the United America NGO, he does little to conceal his moderate-Democrat inclinations. After all, he ran for Congress in a Democratic Party primary, and in the book he mocks anarcho-capitalist economists such as Walter Block and David Friedman.

Further, he appears blind to his own biases, falsely championing himself as a “radical centrist.” For example, he notes public spending as a percentage of GDP as his gauge of government size, assuming spending should grow in proportion to the rest of the economy. As economist Robert Higgs has said, “that doesn’t make a lot of sense.” We don’t assume the cost of other items should follow such a pattern.

Wheelan’s ideological blindness reminds me of when two prominent economists in Canadian universities—David Green and Joseph Marchand—offered a purportedly value-free assessment of the minimum wage. One published his research, which showed job losses, with the C.D. Howe Institute. Yet he and his coauthor proceeded to advocate a $15 minimum wage on “equity” and “turnover” grounds.

The challenges of economics as an academic field are vast and will continue to be a pertinent topic in my financial writing. In particular, the trend toward less theoretical and more empirical economics is becoming obvious, as are the consequences. As documented by Econ Journal Watch, progressive ideology and central banking biases have long been undermining classical economics, polluting the field, and orienting it toward policy interventionism.

Naked Economics has plenty of laudable material, notably regarding Gary Becker on family economics and Ronald Coase on property rights and externalities. However, the book is a product of its time, and much of the good in it will likely go over the layman’s head. Wheelan’s book on statistics remains his more useful work, and Economics in One Lesson, despite being fifty-six years its senior, retains its spot as the go-to economics primer.

Author:

Contact Fergus Hodgson

Fergus Hodgson is editor in chief of the PanAm Post, a bilingual publication that spans the American continent. Originally from New Zealand, he came to the United States to study economics at Boston University and now lives in Miami, Florida.

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Why Economists Are So Often Accused of Being Indifferent to Social Problems | Mises Wire

Posted by M. C. on June 16, 2020

For example, one can argue both economically and medically that if people are permitted to mingle again and return to their jobs, although in the short run we may see a spike in COVID-19 infections and even a spike in death rates, over the longer term, it would result in fewer deaths. To a certain extent, this is an empirical assessment that we cannot confirm until we actually engage in the activity and permit certain policies. The economists’ logic goes as follows: we know that in the short term there may be more infections and premature deaths, but over time such a policy would result in fewer infections and deaths in the longer future.

The critics, however, tend to look only at the short term.

https://mises.org/wire/why-economists-are-so-often-accused-being-indifferent-social-problems?utm_source=Mises+Institute+Subscriptions&utm_campaign=14274f5d69-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_9_21_2018_9_59_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8b52b2e1c0-14274f5d69-228343965

The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.

~Henry Hazlitt, Economics in One Lesson

As someone who has written articles and papers on police and prosecutorial matters (yes, economists analyze those things, too) for two decades, I am not surprised to see the kinds of police killings that provoke people to anger, frustration, and helplessness.

When economists look at what only can be called bad things that happen time and again, we ask why that is so. More specifically, we want to know about the structures of incentives that encourage things to occur time and again, even when there is general agreement that things need to change. Our analyses and our recommendations (when we make them) often are seen either as insensitive or outright offensive to people who don’t know or understand the language of economics and economists.

For example, many economists have been much more critical of the lockdown response to COVID-19, so we are accused by others of wanting people to die. People accuse of us being “unscientific” or insensitive to the needs of others during a pandemic. It seems that it is impossible to cross the divide between economists and their critics.

So, what do economists believe regarding something like dealing with COVID-19? Is our criticism of the lockdowns due to right-wing ideology (as some of my colleagues would claim), lack of compassion for the sick, or something else?

First, and most important, economists hold that we live in a world of scarcity and that our options always are going to be limited. We also will operate in logical fashion, working off sets of assumptions. So, let me demonstrate how the analysis might work.

Economists Must Consider Scarcity

Let us first assume that the national lockdown strategy (one size fits all) was the most effective in preventing more COVID-19 deaths. Now, there was no basis in fact for the original prediction of 2.2 million American deaths, and we know in hindsight that the model that came from Imperial College of London was terribly flawed and vastly overestimated the “if we do nothing” results. We cannot know if our assumption is correct given that we didn’t try anything else, so we would have to deal with a counterfactual, which speaks for itself.

The question, then, would be how long we could be locked down before becoming overwhelmed with the unemployment and the lack of production of essential goods. In other words, How long before the negative results of the lockdown become so dire that we cannot continue on this path? To put it bluntly, if we stay locked down too long, people will die from the consequences; lots of people. Think of all of the people with medical conditions that could not see doctors and receive treatment because most of the medical resources were being directed toward dealing with treatment and prevention of COVID-19. (See? There we go again with the law of scarcity.)

Do we know where the crossover point might be? Well, no. The worlds of medicine and public policy will depend upon models that are imperfect, that are likely to be ideologically biased (especially the more apocalyptic ones), and that do not “predict” the past very accurately, let alone the future. (When I was doing graduate work, one of my professors once told me regarding the use of econometric models: “Econometrics: Predicting the past with ever increasing reliability.”)

However, we can make general observations, and we also can look at the occupational (and racial) makeup of those who are directing the lockdown policies and those who are most negatively affected by them. Phil Magness notes that when we consider policy decisions these occupational differences are not trivial:

Many in elite academia and journalism have the luxury of a paycheck for the time being, as well as the ability to do their work from home with only modest disruption. Vast numbers of newly unemployed Americans do not.

At the same time, most academic efforts to cast the lockdown debate along racial lines miss or omit another dimension that belies their critical theory-infused attacks on any attempt to reopen the economy. The very same lockdowns, social distancing mandates, and shelter-in-place orders that these writers defend are also backed by heavy-handed enforcement by the state. And in many cases, that enforcement falls disproportionately on racial minorities, the poor, and people with fewer means to defend themselves.

Magness was writing in response to those who claimed that people who protested the lockdown did so either out of selfishness or racism or both. (That the lockdowns have disproportionately harmed racial minorities seems to have escaped the notice of many academic and media elites. One doubts that this omission is accidental.)

Looking at the Long-Term

 

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