MCViewPoint

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Posts Tagged ‘Fed’

How the Fed Made Housing Unaffordable

Posted by M. C. on June 28, 2025

In other words, falling interest rates are a manifestation of monetary inflation, and monetary inflation often shows up as asset price inflation. We see this reflected in home prices when the central bank works to drive down interest rates. This, of course, is also reflected in consumer price inflation, which rose to forty-year highs in 2022. It is not a coincidence that after a decade of extreme efforts to inflate home prices after 2009, consumer prices surged nearly 25 percent in only five years, from 2020 to 2025.

Mises WireRyan McMaken

Donald Trump and his allies continue to complain that the central bank isn’t inflating the money supply enough. Last week, Bill Pulte, Trump’s appointee to the Federal Housing and Finance Administration—and the head of Fannie and Freddie—complained that Powell and the FOMC weren’t forcing down interest rates enough.

Pulte wrote on X/Twitter:

Because President Trump has crushed inflation, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell needs to lower interest rates today, and if not Chairman Powell needs to resign, immediately. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can help so many more Americans if Chair Powell will just do his job and lower rates.

With these comments, Pulte is demonstrating that he, like his boss Donald Trump, subscribes to the standard Yellen-Bernanke inflationist model of monetary policy: the job of the central bank is to forever force down interest rates, churn out more easy money, and devalue the currency.

Pulte claims publicly that this somehow makes homes more affordable. As we’ll see below, though, the Fed’s easy-money policy of recent decades has not made home more affordable. Rather, Fed policy has helped to relentless increase home prices through the Fed’s asset purchases, interest rate policy, and monetary inflation.

Although Pulte is engaging in performative protests against “too-high” interest rates, it is more likely he is being motivated by the usual crony “capitalist” agenda: press for more monetary inflation so Wall Street will enjoy the fruits of more asset-price inflation.  

Of course, that’s just speculation. But, his actual motivations are immaterial to the fact that following the recommendation of Trump, Vance, Pulte, et al, will only continue to blow up a housing bubble and place housing ever more beyond the reach of ordinary people.

Do Falling Interest Rates Increase Home Prices?

There is a fairly clear inverse relationship between interest rates and home prices. This is certainly obvious to real estate agents and their lobbyists who perennially lobby for lower interest rates because they know that lower interest rates lead to more home purchases and higher prices. This in turn, leads to higher commissions for agents.

The inverse relationship is reflected in this graph:

Source: Source: US Census Bureau and Freddie Mac.

There are many factors that affect mortgage rates, of course, but over the past thirty years—and especially since 2009—falling interest rates have coincided with rising home prices. In fact, falling interest rates slightly precede rising home prices, suggesting a causal relationship.

It’s easy to picture how falling interest rates lead to higher prices. When mortgage rates are low, it is easier to afford monthly payments on, say, a $300,000 mortgage. At three percent, the monthly payment is about $1700 per month. At six percent, though, the payment on the same mortgage is nearly $2300 per month. Clearly, there are more potential buyers for the house at the lower interest rate.

But there are important monetary reasons that explain why low interest rates drive prices higher. In the modern context of inflationary fiat currency, lower interest rates are usually fueled by new money creation, and this monetary inflation drives more asset price inflation.

This is because central banks “set” their lower interest rates through open market operations that involve increases in the money supply. In Understanding Money Mechanics, economist Bob Murphy explains:

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What About the Price of Beef?

Posted by M. C. on March 10, 2025

Is there a magic wand to solve the problem of high beef prices, as well as high pork and chicken prices? Actually yes, begin by returning to the gold standard or at least don’t allow the Fed to target interest rates or increase the money supply. Remove the wild swings in the market and make investment more certain. The second day, release vast amounts of federally-controlled land and eliminate the ethanol program that diverts corn into our gasoline. Peace in Ukraine and the Middle East would unleash more food and fuel for the human population and this translates to improvements for the people directly impacted and to the general world population.

Mises WireMark Thornton

In September 2023, we looked at the high price of beef and how big government has been bad for the American family budget. With stock indexes even higher, the situation for beef consumers is even worse.

In the US, the price of hamburger meat ended last year near a record high of $5.60 per pound. Just 5 years earlier—prior to covid—it was $3.88 per pound. From the early 1980s to 2000, hamburger meat averaged $1.50 per pound. That means that over that 40+-year period, hamburger meat is four times as expensive.

While that seems like a big increase—and it is—the rate of increase is only slightly higher than what the government claims has been the increase in consumer prices in general over the entire period as measured by their Consumer Price Index or CPI. So, beef has been a fairly accurate barometer of the impact of government and Federal Reserve policies undermining the household economy. The most rapid increase in beef prices and consumer prices in general have come in the aftermath of the Trump-Biden covid spending sprees and, of course, the vast money printing by the Federal Reserve unleashed in 2020. 

Like most businesses, raising cattle and related businesses have faced significant increases in costs due mostly to inflationary forces. Grains used to feed cattle are impacted by monetary inflation. There was a huge upward spike in grain prices from the Fed’s covid monetary inflation. Often blamed on Russia’s invasion of grain-producing Ukraine, grain prices actually peaked around the time of the invasion, leveled off, and even subsequently declined as the world economy contracted. Even though grain prices have retreated, herd size must have come under enormous pressure with the covid inflation as grain price surged, herd size retreated. Beef consumption also retreated in the post-GFC inflationary contraction.

With prices relatively high, and grain prices and herd sizes having retreated, beef producers are in a temporary sweet spot, but consumers and others along the supply chain, such as processors and wholesalers remain soured. It is a tough competitive business, subject to the cycles of uncertainty.

Another largely-unnoticed inflationary impact on beef supply and prices is the Fed monetary policy.

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The Fed Has Stopped Pretending that Price Inflation Is Going Away

Posted by M. C. on February 15, 2025

Congress (both sides) spends it and the Fed prints it. Don’t believe a word either tells you.

Mises WireRyan McMaken

At its September 2024 meeting, the Fed’s FOMC cut the target federal funds rate by a historically large 50 basis points and then justified this cut on the grounds that “The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.”

The FOMC again cut the target rate in November and then again in December. Each time, the FOMC’s official statement said something to the effect of “[price] inflation is headed to two percent. Specifically, the November statement said “[Price inflation] has made progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective.” The December statement said exactly the same thing.

It remains unclear what motivated the FOMC to slice the target rate so drastically in September. Was it a cynical political ploy to stimulate the economy right before an election? Or was the Fed spooked by weak economic data? We don’t know, and the Fed is a secretive organization.

But whatever the Fed actually believes, the committee’s claims about “greater confidence” in falling price inflation is now gone. The FOMC announced in January that it would not lower the target rate, and the FOMC also removed from its official statement the line about making progress “toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective.” That sentence disappeared from the written statement, although Powell, in the press conference, apparently felt the need to remind the audience that “Inflation has moved much closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal…” He nonetheless failed to mention anything about continued progress.

It looks increasingly like all that confidence about “sustainable progress” on price inflation back in September—in the heat of election season, of course—was just one of the Fed’s many bogus, politically motivated forecasts.

Even if the Fed truly is motivated by the official data, though, it’s clear that the Fed now has good reason to downplay talk of declaring victory on the Fed’s two-percent inflation goal.

Recent official data—which generally reflects the best scenario that government bean counters can muster—shows plenty of bad news in this area. According to the Fed’s preferred inflation measure—PCE inflation—year-over-year price inflation reached an eight-month high in December, at 2.6 percent. (December is the most recent available number on PCE.) If we look at January’s headline CPI inflation, released on Wednesday, the picture is even worse. Year-over-year CPI inflation hit a nine-month high in January, at 3.0 percent, and month-to-month growth was at an eighteen-month high of 0.5 percent.

Thanks to the Fed’s unrestrained embrace of monetary inflation from 2020 to 2022, American consumers are still facing the grim reality of rising prices on basic necessities. In January’s CPI report, some of the largest jumps in prices were in food (2.5 percent), energy services (2.5 percent), other services (4.3 percent) and shelter (4.4 percent).

Wholesale prices also suggested that we won’t be seeing much relief from price inflation. According to new producer price index numbers, released on Thursday, year-over-year growth in the PPI reached a 24-month high of 3.5 percent. This is bad news for those hoping that the Fed’s predictions of falling prices might somehow come true. CNN delivered the bad news on Thursday: “The stronger numbers seen in Thursday’s PPI will tend to translate into continued consumer price inflation through the middle of the year.”

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To Make America Great Again, Separate Money and State

Posted by M. C. on January 31, 2025

The Ron Paul Liberty Report

It’s all about the Fed and printing money.

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Bankers, Fed Origins, and World War I

Posted by M. C. on December 2, 2024

Let me issue and control a nation’s money and I care not who writes the laws.—Rothschild

The American people are suckers for the word “reform.” You just put that into any corrupt piece of legislation, call it “reform” and people say “Oh, I’m all for ‘reform,’” and so they vote for it or accept it.”—G. Edward Griffin

The real truth of the matter is, as you and I know, that a financial element in the larger centers has owned the Government ever since the days of Andrew Jackson…—FDR

Of all people, FDR should know.

https://mises.org/mises-wire/bankers-fed-origins-and-world-war-i

Mises WireJoshua Mawhorter

Though there had been steady steps toward centralization of the monetary and financial system in the United States—especially since banking and the federal government were connected by the National Banking System during and after the Civil War (ca. 1863-1913)—the financial-banking elite, especially in New York, still had several complaints prior to the creation of the Fed.

New York Banks, Wall Street, and “Monopoly”

The movement toward central banking, the Federal Reserve System, in America was a keystone of the Progressive movement. Like all other regulations and reforms of the Progressive era—as perfectly encapsulated by G. Edward Griffin’s quote above—the movement toward the Fed was ironically presented publicly as fighting banking “monopoly,” “stabilizing” the system, curbing inflationism, and disciplining banks and financial elites. In fact, it would involve the establishing of a monopoly in the name of fighting monopoly. Consequently, this would furnish government a handy tool for greater inflationism and would allow the banks in the system to engage in unsound monetary practices with the promise of government bailouts. Remarks Rothbard in A History of Money and Banking,

Fortunately for the cartelists, a solution to this vexing problem lay at hand. Monopoly could be put over in the name of opposition to monopoly! In that way, using the rhetoric beloved by Americans, the form of the political economy could be maintained, while the content could be totally reversed.

Banker Complaints

Prior to the establishment of the Federal Reserve, however, the movement toward centralization of the monetary and financial system was incomplete from the bankers’ perspective. The financial interests were still missing a few key factors and still observed major “flaws.” In summary, their main complaint was “inelasticity,” that is, banks within the national banking system were not able to expand money and credit to the extent that they wanted. These financial elites disliked the lack of complete centralization provided through the halfway step of the National Banking System, the lack of cartelization, competitive pressures from non-national banks, and the threat to New York banks’ financial supremacy. Regarding the New York financial interests, Ron Paul and Lehrman, in their Case for Gold (1982), avow,

…the large banks, particularly on Wall Street, saw financial control slipping away from them. The state banks and other non-national banks began to grow instead and outstrip the nationals.

Similarly, Gabriel Kolko in The Triumph of Conservatism (1977), argues,

The crucial fact of the financial structure at the beginning of this century was the relative decrease in New York’s financial significance and the rise of many alternate sources of substantial financial power.

For example, throughout the 1870s and 1880s, most of the banks were national banks, with financial standards determined by Washington, but by 1896, non-national banks—state banks, savings banks, and private banks—made up 61 percent of the total number of banks, providing competitive pressure. By 1913, 71 percent of banks were non-national banks, again putting competitive pressure on Wall Street banks. This was unacceptable to the national banks, especially the New York financial-banking elite. Kolko writes that, “This diffusion and decentralization in the banking structure seriously undercut New York’s financial supremacy.” Regarding the fundamental changes brought about by Federal Reserve System, Kolko further explains,

The economy by 1910 had moved well beyond the control of any city, any group of men, or any alliance then existing in the economy. The control of modern capitalism was to become a matter for the combined resources of the national state, a political rather than an economic matter.

The Panic of 1907, in which major banks were allowed by the government to suspend specie payments and continue operations—being legally released from contractual obligations—led to calls for “reform,” naively agitating for central banking. Unfortunately, these so-called “reforms” would facilitate the most powerful banks engaging in similar inflationary practices, but on a greater scale, insulated from the consequences by the government. Rothbard explains,

Very quickly after the panic, banker and business opinion consolidated on behalf of a central bank, an institution that could regulate the economy and serve as a lender of last resort to bail banks out of trouble.

The banks plus the government partnered to create these boom-bust crises through their inflationary policies through the National Banking System. Then, when the inevitable consequences of these policies were realized, banks and governments would further “reform” the system toward a central bank, legally uniting them, and protecting them from competition and consequences. Problems caused by monetary policies of the government, allied with banks, were to be solved, Americans were told, by the government creating a “bank of banks” that could regulate the entire monetary system.

Central Banking & World War I

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Schiff: Powell Can’t Address Stagflation

Posted by M. C. on November 15, 2024

Tyler Durden's Photo

by Tyler Durden

Friday, Nov 15, 2024 – 07:20 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

At Thursday’s Fed press conference, Powell dodged a question about the possibility of stagflation. Peter sees this as a major gaffe:

He [Powell] kind of says, “Well, our plan for stagflation is to hope there is no stagflation.”

They’ve got no plan. That’s why they hope it doesn’t happen.

Schiff’s assumption is that a Fed plan is not worse than doing nothing.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/schiff-powell-cant-address-stagflation

Peter caps off a very newsworthy week, in which the decisive Trump victory shocked the media class and another Fed rate cut was announced. Peter analyzes both events, arguing against the unbridled economic optimism of Trump’s supporters and criticizing Jerome Powell’s stance on Fed independence and his alarming lack of concern for a future of stagflation.

Peter starts by highlighting the inconvenient trade-off between taxes and government spending. Trump promises new tax cuts, but these will need to be offset by spending cuts, lest the national debt balloons even further out of control:

Trump would have to maybe have a fireside chat in front of the American public and level with them.

He can say, when I was running for president, I promised a lot of things.

I promised a lot of tax cuts… we really need higher taxes if we can’t get some serious cuts in spending.

And so that’s what we’re going to try. I’m going to ask Americans to pitch in and tighten their belts.

While both the Republicans and Democrats like to take credit for for the country’s economic growth, the reality is that much of this “growth” is an artificial boom induced and sustained by decades of expansionary monetary policy by the Federal Reserve:

The problem was we didn’t have a strong economy. We had a bubble. We had a fragile economy.

In fact, we’ve been blowing a bubble in this economy ever since the 1990s. Greenspan is the architect of this house of cards.

He’s been blowing all the air in and every president going back to Clinton has been hiding behind his bubble and has been taking credit for the fake economic growth that has been a consequence of this ever-expanding bubble.

With the stock market lifted by Trump’s success, Peter argues the best time to switch into US equities is when the aforementioned bubble pops. It’ll be painful in the short-term, but that’s when stocks will be a bargain:

The time to load the boat with US stocks is not when they’re historically expensive. I’m waiting for blood in the streets. I want the collapse to happen…

Now, I know when we initially do that and the economy is in recession and everybody is pessimistic, that’s when I’m going to be optimistic, because I’m going to know that this is the bitter tasting medicine that we should have swallowed a long time ago.

Pivoting to the Fed rate cut, Peter points out that the Fed may have cut rates by less than they would have had Kamala Harris been elected instead of Donald Trump:

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As Americans Are Pummeled By Inflation — The Fed Decides On MORE Inflation!

Posted by M. C. on September 23, 2024

The Ron Paul Liberty Report

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Is the ‘Housing Shortage’ the Result of Housing-Hoarding by the Wealthy?

Posted by M. C. on April 23, 2024

Would a deep recession incentivize an increase in the number of occupants per dwelling and a corresponding decline in demand for rentals? Would a collapse of The Everything Bubble prompt some selling of hoarded housing? As painful as these might be, these dynamics would correct the destabilizing distortions wrought by the Fed’s easy-money bubble blowing and concentration of wealth in the hands of the few at the expense of the many.

https://www.oftwominds.com/blogapr24/housing-shortage4-24.html

Those seeking to buy a house as shelter for their household can’t compete with the wealthy seeking assets to snap up and hoard for appreciation.

Longtime readers know I’ve been addressing housing issues from the start of the blog in 2005. Let’s start with the general context of housing in the US, courtesy of the US Census Bureau, which tracks occupancy and the number of housing units nationally: Quarterly Residential Vacancies and Homeownership, 4th Quarter 2023

All housing units 145,967,000

Occupied 131,206,000

Owner 86,220,000 59%
Renter 44,985,000 31%

Vacant 14,761,000 10%

Non-seasonal (i.e. not second homes owned by the wealthy for their recreational use) 11,177,000

Units vacant because they’re in the process of being rented or sold:
For rent 3,224,000
For sale only 757,000
Rented or Sold 783,000

Held off Market (occasional use, temporarily occupied, other) 6,414,000

Seasonal (i.e. second homes owned by the wealthy for their recreational use) 3,583,000

TOTAL Held off Market and Seasonal / Recreational: 9,997,000

In summary: there are 14.7 million vacant dwellings in the US, of which 10 million are not available for year-round rentals or sale. Those 10 million dwellings are comparable to the total number of dwellings in entire nations, for example, Australia (11 million housing units, population of 27 million).

There are many complexities not specified or included in these statistics. For example, vacant dwellings located in rural locales with few jobs might be empty because there is little demand due to a declining population. Other dwellings may no longer be habitable without renovation or repair.

On the other side of the equation, non-permitted dwellings (granny flats, etc.) may also be uncounted as those answering Census Bureau questionnaires might hesitate to report units added without official approval. This can include everything from RVs parked alongside homes to converted garages to living rooms partitioned off and rented out as quasi-bedrooms.

The vagarities of self-reported data are potentially major factors in counting short-term vacation rentals, a.k.a. AirBnB / VRBO-type rentals. Data remains sketchy on exactly how many housing units are being “held off the market” as short-term vacation rentals. As of 2023, there were 2,459,260 available vacation rental listings in the U.S., but this may not include informal rentals, rentals listed outside of the major platforms, etc.

The Census Bureau offers several estimates of seasonal units: 3.6 million in the above link, and 4.3 million vacant seasonal units in this post: See a Vacant Home? It May Not be For Sale or Rent. These are traditionally second or third homes of wealthy households. but many such properties are now being offered as short-term vacation rentals for periods when the owners aren’t using the property.

What these statistics don’t tell us is how many housing units have been snapped up by wealthy households as investments, nominally as “second homes” but solely as safe places to park excess capital / credit, not for recreational use. The wealthy may have joined the rush to cash in on the short-term vacation rentals boom, but they don’t need positive cash flow to afford the costs of ownership; the Airbnb rental income was mostly to defray the costs of ownership.

Too Many Rich People Bought Airbnbs. Now They’re Sitting Empty

In other words, one factor in the “housing shortage” is the pressure on the wealthiest households to find places to park their excess capital and exploit their low-cost lines of credit. This can be understood as a second-order effect of the Federal Reserve’s policy of inflating asset bubbles in which 90% of the gains flowed to the top 10% households. This new wealth could then be tapped to buy real estate, a long-favored asset class of the wealthy that has risen to new heights as the wealthy compete with other wealthy households to snap up housing.

There’s not much in the pockets of the bottom 50% to compete with the top 5% for housing: we can expand this to say there isn’t enough in the pockets of the bottom 90% to compete with the top 10% who collected 90% of the gains of the Fed’s credit-asset bubbles:

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The Fed Holds the Fed Funds Rate Steady—Because it Doesn’t Know What Else To Do | Mises Wire

Posted by M. C. on September 27, 2023

If we read between the lines, it is apparent that the Fed is hoping that price inflation will fall to politically acceptable levels without any additional tightening, and without a recession. But “hope” is all the Fed has. The FOMC voting members have no idea what comes next. But, the members apparently still fear politically damaging price inflation isn’t going away as evidenced by most members’ admission that the target rate is unlikely to fall much before the end of 2024. This is notable because the FOMC members tend to strenuously avoid any predictions that rates might tighten further.

These guys are the best we have? I don’t think so. See mises.org, fee.org.

https://mises.org/wire/fed-holds-fed-funds-rate-steady-because-it-doesnt-know-what-else-do

Ryan McMaken

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday left the target policy interest rate (the federal funds rate) unchanged at 5.5 percent. This “pause” in the target rate suggests the FOMC believes it has raised the target rate high enough to rein in price inflation which has run well above the Fed’s arbitrary two-percent inflation target since mid-2021. 

The press release from the FOMC was largely unchanged from previous recent meetings and contained the usual language about the state of the economy and the Fed’s ability to manage it:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated. … The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. … the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. 

This rosy and orderly picture of the situation relies on cherry-picking which indicators on which to base an assessment of the overall economy, and in his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell repeated the usual stock language the committee routinely provides on how present high labor demand proves there is no economic turbulence on the horizon. This reliance on current jobs data deliberately hides a larger and more accurate assessment of the economy. Nonetheless, in his comments at the press conference, Powell stated some undeniable facts: 

Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent—4 percent over the 12 months ending in August—and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 3.9 percent. Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year … Nevertheless, the progress—the process of getting inflation sustainably down to 2 percent has a long way to go. 

This meeting of the FOMC was described as “hawkish” by Wall Street observers and pundits, mainly because the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) suggested that the target inflation rate will remain at 5.5 percent—or even slightly higher—throughout the rest of the year. As Powell noted:

If the economy evolves as projected the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal-funds rate will be 5.6 percent at the end of this year, 5.1 percent at the end of 2024, and 3.9 percent at the end of 2025. Compared with our June Summary of Economic Projections, the median projection is unrevised for the end of this year but is moved up by a half percentage point at the end of the next two years.

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The Goldilocks Zone | Mises Institute

Posted by M. C. on July 14, 2023

But if such a rate exists, it would have been both communicated and achieved by now. All of their other data, whether unemployment statistics or hourly earnings, is just noise in an already crowded arena of barely useful economic data, serving little purpose other than maintaining the illusion of control.

https://mises.org/power-market/goldilocks-zone

Robert Aro

The latest meeting minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) offers valuable insights into the make-believe nature of monetary policy. While the true motives of the Fed’s inner circle may forever remain a mystery, it is evident their narrative revolves around the quest for an ideal economic state or finding a “Goldilocks Zone” of economic data. Only when the data aligns perfectly will the Fed’s mission be complete and the battle against inflation be won.

Let’s examine their perspective on the unemployment rate. In their own words:

The unemployment rate edged up, on net, but was still at a low level of 3.7 percent in May. On balance, the unemployment rate for African Americans moved up to 5.6 percent, while the jobless rate for Hispanics moved down to 4.0 percent.

Perhaps some find unemployment statistics intriguing. But the practical application of this data can hardly be explained and its conclusions are offensive. If African Americans are at 5.6 percent and Hispanics at 4.0 percent, it suggests that somewhere in America exists a team of technocrats tasked with answering the question: How many minorities should be in the workforce?

Average hourly earnings are given similar treatment:

Over the 12 months ending in May, average hourly earnings for all employees increased 4.3 percent, below its peak of 5.9 percent early last year.

Even if we overlook the issues of arriving at a national average for hourly earnings, the problem persists in what the preferred hourly pay should be.

Mainstream economic news outlets like CBS perpetuate the Goldilocks idea:

Some economists expect the Fed to raise rates at every other meeting as it seeks to pull off a difficult maneuver: Raising borrowing costs high enough to cool the economy and tame inflation yet not so high as to cause a deep recession.

Should anyone believe these economists, they’d have to believe the Fed can do the impossible; in this version, finding the interest rate that ensures the economy runs neither too hot, nor too cold so that prices continually rise by just the right amount, guaranteeing prosperity…

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