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Posts Tagged ‘Tyler Cowen’

EconomicPolicyJournal.com: Why Price Inflation Indexes Are More Fake Than Ever

Posted by M. C. on August 29, 2020

There are restaurants that don’t have outside dining just takeout. I pass them by.

The Jos. A. Bank clothing store in downtown San Francisco has closed. There is a sign in the window of the closed store suggesting I visit their nearest store—in Sacramento, a 2 hour drive.

It goes on and on. The unmeasured decline in goods and services that Cowen references because of the lockdowns is major and certainly not measured by the government indexes. Our standard of living is crashing.

https://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2020/08/why-price-inflation-indexes-are-more.html

Tyler Cowen makes some interesting points in his Bloomberg column:

The most obvious effect of the pandemic is often better understood by the public than by professional economists: It has been an inflationary time, but not in the traditional manner.

The measured numbers indicate deflationary pressures, but that is misleading. In times of crisis, any measured inflation rate becomes much less meaningful as an economic indicator.

Let’s take education, which many American students have been doing online or not receiving much of at all. Whether for K-12 or at the university level, the cost of getting a quality education this year has risen drastically (think private tutors) — and for many individuals it may be impossible altogether. We are seeing deteriorating quality, and thus much higher real prices, yet this does not show up as either a quality adjustment or a price increase in standard calculations.
Or consider health care. For months, Americans were afraid to visit hospital facilities, for fear of contracting Covid-19. The perceived cost of the hospital visit was thus much higher, in terms of anxiety and medical risk, even if the sticker price or reimbursement rate for heart surgery hasn’t budged.
In many parts of the country, the lines at the motor vehicle offices are much longer, or it is much more time-consuming to get your car inspected for state approval. That is mostly due to pent-up demand from the worst months of the pandemic…
Education, health care and government are pretty big parts of our economy. If you add on the lower quality of restaurant visits, reduced sports performances (your ESPN cable package is worth less), and an inability to take preferred vacations and trips, you have many more negative quality adjustments that don’t show up in measured rates of inflation.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Fed and other institutions have declined to make formal adjustments for these changes in the real standard of living…
Inflation measures work best when the consumption bundle is roughly stable over short periods of time, and that just hasn’t been the case this year…
Perhaps most important, price rules and other forms of inflation rules don’t really work in times of pandemic. The very measurement of price inflation becomes arbitrary, and dependent on inertial measurement conventions from normal times, so the numbers don’t have enough actual economic meaning to guide policy.

Cowen makes these points in a wider essay discussing Fed decisions based on traditional price index measures, which I am less inclined to agree with, but his point here on how the quality of goods and services have declined during the lockdown is a very important observation.

Off the top of my head, I can think of instances where it applies to me.

The local Whole Foods maintains a count of the number of customers in its store and makes others wait outside until customers leave to keep the occupancy limited. I really don’t have time for this nonsense (a cost for me) and so I rarely visit anymore.

There are restaurants that don’t have outside dining just takeout. I pass them by.

The Jos. A. Bank clothing store in downtown San Francisco has closed. There is a sign in the window of the closed store suggesting I visit their nearest store—in Sacramento, a 2 hour drive.

It goes on and on. The unmeasured decline in goods and services that Cowen references because of the lockdowns is major and certainly not measured by the government indexes. Our standard of living is crashing.

RW

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Rutan Rules – LewRockwell

Posted by M. C. on February 7, 2020

Sometime during the late 1990s I saw a presentation by the entrepreneur and aircraft designer Burt Rutan. My brother is a pilot and confirms that he is a legend in aviation circles. Rutan is most famous to the general public for the design of the Voyager, which in 1986 was the first plane to fly around the world without stopping or refueling…

Perhaps Mr. Cowen can explain why we have to rely on Russia to ferry US astronauts back and forth to the ISS.

Dick Rutan, Burt’s brother, piloted the voyager. I listened to his biography on NPR many years ago. He spoke of another government agency and how they ran the airwar in Vietnam.

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/02/ira-katz/rutan-rules/

By

The recent article by Joseph Salerno on the “libertarian” academic star Tyler Cowen, and especially Peter Klein’s comments regarding Cowen’s opinion of NASA, have awakened in me recollections on Cowen and NASA that I will explain below.

It was almost 30 years ago that I met Tyler Cowen at the 1990 General Meeting of The Mont Pelerin Society (MPS) held in Munich. The MPS was founded by Friederich Hayek after WWII to bring together those intellectuals who still believed in free societies as the rest of the world followed a socialist path. Robert Higgs wrote about the founding, history, and influence of the MPS here.  You can see Cowen on the list of participants, that I highlighted as I met people there. This was my first and only economic/social science meeting I ever attended and my first visit to Europe.



What I vaguely remember was an enjoyable conversation with a very bright and very nice person. I should add that everyone I met there was very bright and very nice to me.  I don’t recall how he looked, and his appearance now does not seem at all like the person I had talked to. This lack of impact on me is not because of Cowen, but totally due to my poor memory and perhaps the related effects of jet lag and open bars at the MPS events.

In the years following the meeting I did follow some of the intellectuals I had met there (I shook hands with Milton Friedman) including one couple who became close friends. But as for Cowen, I don’t remember much. Perhaps only an article by David Gordon in 2013 that gave this background on Cowen’s career in his description of Walter Grinder, who was working from the Koch-dominated Institute for Humane Studies, to promote a “Rothbardianism with manners.”

His new policy took over an idea from Friedrich Hayek’s famous essay, “The Intellectuals and Socialism,” though I doubt that Hayek would have endorsed the IHS application of his ideas. Hayek stressed that new social movements first gain adherents among top-ranking theorists. The majority of intellectuals, the “second-hand dealers in ideas,” then popularize and simplify what they have learned from these thinkers, passing the product on to the general public. Grinder and others in leadership posts at IHS concluded that they should concentrate on elite universities such as Harvard, Yale, and Princeton in the United States, and Oxford and Cambridge in England. If students could be recruited from these universities or, if already sympathetic, admitted to their programs, success was at hand.

Grinder placed particular emphasis on Tyler Cowen, a brilliant student who had been interested in Austrian economics since his high school days. Cowen enrolled in an Austrian economics program at Rutgers, where he impressed both Joe Salerno and Richard Fink with his extraordinary erudition. When Fink moved to George Mason University, Cowen moved with him; and he completed his undergraduate degree there in 1983. Grinder considered him the next Hayek, the hope of Austrian economics.

In accord with the elite universities policy, Cowen went to Harvard for his graduate degree. There he came under the influence of Thomas Schelling and gave up his belief in Austrian economics.

After he finished his PhD in 1987, Cowen was for a time a professor at the University of California at Irvine, and he used to visit me sometimes in Los Angeles. I was impressed with his remarkable intelligence and enjoyed talking with him. But I remember how surprised I was one day when he told me that he did not regard Ludwig von Mises very highly. Here he fitted in all-too-well with another policy of Richard Fink and the Kochtopus leadership. They regarded Mises as a controversial figure: his “extremism” would interfere with the mission of arousing mainstream interest in the Austrian School. Accordingly, Hayek should be stressed and Mises downplayed. (After the collapse of the Soviet Union, which led to new interest in Mises’s socialist calculation argument, this policy changed. The mainstream, though of course continuing to reject Mises, now recognized him as a great economist.) The policy was strategic, but Cowen went further — he really didn’t rate Mises highly.

Cowen eventually returned to George Mason University as a Professor of Economics. He is said to be the dominant figure in the department. Because of his close friendship with Richard Fink, who left academic work to become a major executive with Koch Industries and the principal disburser of Koch Foundation funding, Cowen exerts a major influence on grants to his department.

In his article, Klein related a conversation he had had with Cowen about NASA.

This is actually Cowen’s long-held view. You may remember his 2014 article “The Lack of  Major Wars May Be Hurting Economic Growth,” which echoed the Mariana Mazzucato position that government spending is the main source of technological progress. I remember a friendly argument with Cowen some twenty years ago about NASA, which he insisted was an example of benevolent government intervention. I brought up the standard counter arguments—theoretical (how do you measure benefits and costs, including opportunity costs?), empirical (lots of case study evidence suggesting widespread waste, fraud, and long-term negative effects on the direction of science and technology), and deontological (is it okay to coerce people to support transfer payments that they see as against their self interest?). He wasn’t buying it. Space exploration is just so cool that the usual arguments don’t apply.

I recently listened to Cowen do an interview with Eric Weinstein on his Portal podcast.

Cowen has a very irritable monotone voice, almost as if it was computer generated.  I couldn’t take all 138 minutes but I did catch his pleading against conspiracies in general and the Epstein case in particular (about 33) that substantiate Klein’s description of his debate style of responding to a plethora of evidence simply by not buying it.

Sometime during the late 1990s I saw a presentation by the entrepreneur and aircraft designer Burt Rutan. My brother is a pilot and confirms that he is a legend in aviation circles. Rutan is most famous to the general public for the design of the Voyager, which in 1986 was the first plane to fly around the world without stopping or refueling and his suborbital spaceplane design, SpaceShipOne, that won the Ansari X-Prize for the first private organization to launch a reusable manned spacecraft into space twice within two weeks. If there were ever a film biography of Rutan, John Wayne would have been perfect to portray this larger than life figure. In the presentation I saw he provided great experiential evidence that eviscerated the role of NASA in the development of space flight, or rather the nondevelopment, from a quasi-libertarian standpoint. He compared the explosion of innovation in the early development of airplanes compared to the languid retrograde motion of space travel. Afterall, the boys from the bike shop beat the government sponsored project in the beginning. Now there is a lively competition in the development of suborbital space tourism. I could not find an equivalent of the presentation I saw on the internet but I did find this 2012 presentation that gives a sense of, but is not so pointed or complete, as the one I witnessed.

Maybe if Cowen watched Rutan he might alter his position on NASA, but I doubt it.

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Thoughts on Tyler Cowen’s “State Capacity Libertarianism” – LewRockwell

Posted by M. C. on January 13, 2020

https://mises.org/power-market/thoughts-tyler-cowens-state-capacity-libertarianism

Jeff Deist

George Mason University economist Tyler Cowen has penned a brief manifesto for what he calls “State Capacity Libertarianism” on the Marginal Revolution blog. In it he makes the case for libertarians to embrace “state capacity” in certain limited cases. You can read his essay here.

My initial responses, in no particular order, are as follows:

1. There is no political will or constituency for skillful technocratic state management of society. This is a pipe dream, once simply referred to as elusive “good government.” When do public choicers of all people give this up?
2. There is no third way between state and market, regardless of technology or material development. Futurism is bunk; the question before us today is the same as thirty, fifty, or one hundred years ago: who decides? Decentralization vs. centralization is the most important policy question.
3. Western states won’t give up their sclerotic regulatory, tax, central banking, and entitlement systems no matter how many flying cars or hyperloops we want. This reality will be a huge drag on science, infrastructure, medicine/health, and overall well-being.
4. The environmental movement will quash nuclear (especially after Fukushima), and the energy capacity vs. weight/cost issue will continue to plague electric cars/planes.
5. Left socialism, not libertarian futurism, is the rising tide across the West — and its constituency skews young. Adopting its pose, language, or ostensible goals won’t produce Singapore.
6. Climate change is not a problem or issue for anyone to solve.
7. The West can’t advance until it stops warring. War and peace won’t be solved technocratically, and true noninterventionism requires a painful rethinking of the hubris known as universalism. I thought technocrats believed in realpolitik?
8. Human happiness and prosperity depend on elements of civil society which libertarian futurists don’t like (faith, family, et al.). Hence the cheap jab at “Ron Paulism.”
9. We build “capacity” in society through profit, saving, and capital investment. Government makes this worse, not better, in each and every case.
10. Libertarianism simply means “private.” It is a non-state approach to organizing human society. It is not narrow or confining; in fact everything Cowen desires in an improved society can be advanced through private mechanisms.

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The Libertarian Movement Needs a Kick in the Pants – Reason.com

Posted by M. C. on January 3, 2020

Jacob Hornberger of the Foundation For Freedom says he will campaign as a Libertarian. Best news in a while.

https://reason.com/2020/01/03/the-libertarian-movement-needs-a-kick-in-the-pants/

In a provocative yet thoughtful manifesto, economist Tyler Cowen, a major figure in libertarian circles, offers a harsh assessment of his ideological confreres:

Having tracked the libertarian “movement” for much of my life, I believe it is now pretty much hollowed out, at least in terms of flow. One branch split off into Ron Paul-ism and less savory alt right directions, and another, more establishment branch remains out there in force but not really commanding new adherents.  For one thing, it doesn’t seem that old-style libertarianism can solve or even very well address a number of major problems, most significantly climate change. For another, smart people are on the internet, and the internet seems to encourage synthetic and eclectic views, at least among the smart and curious. Unlike the mass culture of the 1970s, it does not tend to breed “capital L Libertarianism.” On top of all that, the out-migration from narrowly libertarian views has been severe, most of all from educated women.

As an antidote, Cowen champions what he calls “State Capacity Libertarianism,” which holds that a large, growing government does not necessarily come at the expense of fundamental individual rights, pluralism, and the sort of economic growth that leads to continuously improved living standards. Most contemporary libertarians, he avers, believe that big government and freedom are fundamentally incompatible, to which he basically answers, Look upon Denmark and despair: “Denmark should in fact have a smaller government, but it is still one of the freer and more secure places in the world, at least for Danish citizens albeit not for everybody.”

In many ways, Cowen’s post condenses his recent book Stubborn Attachments, in which he argues politics should be organized around respect for individual rights and limited government; policies that encourage long-term, sustainable economic growth; and an acknowledgement that some problems (particularly climate change) need to be addressed at the state rather than individual level. You can listen to a podcast I did with him here or read a condensed interview with him here. It’s an excellent book that will challenge readers of all ideological persuasions. There’s a ton to disagree with in it, but it’s a bold, contrarian challenge to conventional libertarian attitudes, especially the idea that growth in government necessarily diminishes living standards…

Cowen is also misguided in his call for increasing the size, scope, and spending of government. “Our governments cannot address climate change, much improve K-12 education, fix traffic congestion,” he writes, attributing such outcomes to “failures of state capacity”—both in terms of what the state can dictate and in terms of what it can spend. This is rather imprecise. Whatever your beliefs and preferences might be on a given issue, the scale (and cost) of addressing, say, climate change is massive compared to delivering basic education, and with the latter at least, there’s no reason to believe that more state control or dollars will create positive outcomes. More fundamentally, Cowen conflates libertarianism with political and partisan identities, affiliations, and outcomes. I think a better way is to define libertarian less as a noun or even a fixed, rigid political philosophy and more as an adjective or “an outlook that privileges things such as autonomy, open-mindedness, pluralism, tolerance, innovation, and voluntary cooperation over forced participation in as many parts of life as possible.” I’d argue that the libertarian movement is far more effective and appealing when it is cast in pre-political and certainly pre-partisan terms…

Our polemic, later expanded into the book The Declaration of Independents, was as much aspirational as descriptive, but it captured a sense that even as Washington was about to embark on a phenomenal growth spurt—continued and expanded by the Obama administration in all sorts of ways, from the creation of new entitlements to increases in regulation to expansions of surveillance—many aspects of our lives were improving. As conservatives and liberals went dark and apocalyptic in the face of the economic crisis and stalled-out wars and called for ever greater control over how we live and do business, libertarians brought an optimism, openness, and confidence about the future that suggested a different way forward. By the middle of 2014, The New York Times was even asking on the cover of its weekly magazine, “Has the ‘Libertarian Moment Finally Arrived?

That question was loudly answered in the negative as the bizarre 2016 presidential season got underway and Donald Trump appeared on the horizon like Thanos, blocking out the sun and destroying all that lay before him. By early 2016, George Will was looking upon the race between Trump and Hillary Clinton and declaring that we were in fact not in a libertarian moment but an authoritarian one, regardless of which of those monsters ended up in the White House. In front of 2,000 people gathered for the Students for Liberty’s annual international conference, Will told Matt and me:

[Donald Trump] believes that government we have today is not big enough and that particularly the concentration of power not just in Washington but Washington power in the executive branch has not gone far enough….Today, 67 percent of the federal budget is transfer payments….The sky is dark with money going back and forth between client groups served by an administrative state that exists to do very little else but regulate the private sector and distribute income. Where’s the libertarian moment fit in here?

With the 2020 election season kicking into high gear, apocalypticism on all sides will only become more intense than it already is…

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EconomicPolicyJournal.com: Key Snippets From Paul Krugman’s Interview With Tyler Cowen

Posted by M. C. on October 11, 2018

A moment of self discovery. This guy is a Nobel winner. (So were Yassir Arrafat and Obama, both for the peace prize. But that is another story).

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2018/10/key-snippets-from-paul-krugmans.html#more

Recently, Tyler Cowen sat down to interview Paul Krugman.  Here are actual key snippets from Krugman replies to Cowen questions:

COWEN: The New York Times recently referred to a new movement. They called it “hipster antitrust.” The notion, for instance, that maybe Amazon was bad for a more general commercial ecosystem of publishing and retail. Do you have an opinion on hipster antitrust?

KRUGMAN: [sighs] We need something. I haven’t actually looked at the hipster antitrust…

COWEN: Let me throw out a number of ways we might do that, and tell me what you think. Universal basic income.

KRUGMAN: I’m still debating with myself over UBI…
—-
COWEN: Ending the war on drugs and moving to either decriminalization or legalization. Would it help our cities or hurt them?

KRUGMAN: It probably would help, but I’ve put in no thought at all on drugs. I’ve just done no homework. Read the rest of this entry »

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