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Posts Tagged ‘Mortality’

There Is No Pandemic, by Nick Kollerstrom – The Unz Review

Posted by M. C. on February 1, 2021

https://www.unz.com/article/there-is-no-pandemic/

Nick Kollerstrom

2020 saw 14% more deaths than average, last year in England & Wales and that amounted to seventy-five thousand extra deaths. We here use the Office of National statistics figures, as it gives total weekly deaths, plus also for comparison an average value of corresponding weekly deaths over the previous five years.[1]

That compares with the figure of ninety thousand deaths for the entire United Kingdom, due allegedly to covid-19.

We here ask and answer the question, what caused that excess of deaths? The answer will not be certain, but will be the simplest possible explanation. By Occam’s razor we are obliged to take it.

For the first quarter of last year, deaths in England and Wales were down: for whatever reason, overall weekly mortality was 3% below the yearly average. Then around the spring equinox on March 23rd Lockdown was announced and suddenly, deaths surged right up so that thousands of extra deaths started happening week after week. That continued all through April and May and then finally, in the first week of June Britons were allowed out again: with relief we could walk the streets and parks, cafes and pubs opened up again.

Those months of Lockdown saw fifty-nine thousand excess deaths (see graph). That comes from counting the eleven weeks ending 27 March to the 5th June, as being the lockdown period.

The question arises as to what caused them? Could it have been, for example, the shock? The month of April averaged ninety percent more deaths than usual! Then May was not quite so bad, as folk got used to the grim new reality.

In the weeks after the Lockdown i.e. after the first week of June the whole excess of deaths suddenly vanished. Over the next four months deaths remained exactly average compared to previous years.

The graph shows this distinct, three-stage process.

OBNS data for weeks ending
3rd Jan to 20th March12 weeks138,916143,738-4,822-3%
27 March to 5 June11 weeks168,396109,703+58,693+54%LOCKDOWN
12 June to 9 Oct18 weeks166,392165,808+5840%

These figures suggest that it is the lockdown itself and not any virus, that caused the excess deaths.

We’re here reminded of a careful survey done last May which found that, in all countries with reliable death-figures, their increase in mortality began after the lockdown was imposed and not before. There is a very simple difference between cause and effect: the cause comes first, before the effect!

A second Lockdown was imposed over the month of November. This lacked the same terror and shock value of the first and so only reached a net 18% excess of mortality: for the five weeks from week ending 6 November to that of 4th December there were nine thousand excess deaths, compared to the seasonal average.

Figure: weekly data from the Office of National Statistics for 2020, comparing total mortality per week with an estimated average from the previous five years.

Figure: weekly data from the Office of National Statistics for 2020, comparing total mortality per week with an estimated average from the previous five years.

After the autumn equinox as the nights grew longer the government again started to terrorise the population with talk of the ‘dark winter’ to come. Somehow they knew that a ‘second wave’ was coming, and so there would have to be a ‘second lockdown’ and no Christmas. Here’s what I said in a podcast on 20th October:

They are trying to resuscitate another big scare, trying to claim there is a second wave … come this autumn, they have started drumming up fear again, they have imposed these levels of Lockdown which are rather terrifying. A lot of stress they are putting on people, I’ve been wondering, are the deaths going to go up again like last time?

Did that happen? The figures show as before a surge around the time of the lockdown and just before it, however this time it did not vanish after the lockdown. That’s because there was not really any easing up. On the contrary yet more draconian measures were announced, with the unheard-of measure of police stopping people walking outdoors, to ask them if they had good reason to be out of their house? Meeting friends was forbidden, etc. That pressure pushed up the mortality even more and we here especially note the ‘Christmas week’ ending 25th December, with a whopping 45% excess mortality. That is not a merry Christmas, it’s an extra three and a half thousand people popping off (as compared to previous years) in a week, caused presumably by shock and despair of Xmas being cancelled. The week after that it was still very high, 26% excess, as folk faced the bleak new year.

It helps to express that excess mortality as overall monthly means, for the last few months of 2020. Thus taking each month as a whole and selecting four weeks of data for each month:

September from weeks ending11 Sept to 2 Oct.+4%
October9 Oct to 30th Oct+7%
November6 Nov to 27 Nov+18%
December4 Dec to 1st Jan+21%

Slowly the excess deaths (comparing, as before, with previous years) have increased through the autumn and winter. The month of December had ten thousand extra deaths. Should one take the government’s view, that these deaths were caused by the CV19 virus, and that the increasingly severe restrictions were a necessary response to ‘contain’ the spread of this virus? A simpler hypothesis would be that there is no virus killing people, whereas the stress of bankruptcy, solitude, loneliness, etc. imposed by government edicts really has been killing people. Thus for example ‘tier 4’ was announced on 19th December for large parts of England and that resulted in the highest mortality for the week following. That knockout blow to everyone’s Christmas – never banned since the days of Oliver Cromwell – had the deep impact, driving up the mortality index.

Overall it would appear to be the government’s lockdown policy that has been killing people and not some new disease. Stress, loneliness, fear and despair have been causing the excess of deaths: together with emptying out of hospitals, especially of old folk and cancellation of normal services because of the ‘pandemic.’ If the government knows this, then it is a population-reduction program.

A recent US CDC report agreed with the approach we’ve here taken, that the significance of CV19 can only be appreciated in terms of total mortality. Published on the John Hopkins University website on 22nd November (but soon removed), it endorses the view that no virus is killing people, any more than normal flu, whereas deaths from other causes are being re-classified as Covid19:

According to new data, the U.S. currently ranks first in total COVID-19 cases, new cases per day and deaths. Genevieve Briand, assistant program director of the Applied Economics master’s degree program at Hopkins, critically analyzed the effect of COVID-19 on U.S. deaths using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in her webinar titled “COVID-19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data.”

From mid-March to mid-September, U.S. total deaths have reached 1.7 million, of which 200,000, or 12% of total deaths, are COVID-19-related. Instead of looking directly at COVID-19 deaths, Briand focused on total deaths per age group and per cause of death in the U.S. and used this information to shed light on the effects of COVID-19.

She explained that the significance of COVID-19 on U.S. deaths can be fully understood only through comparison to the number of total deaths in the United States.

After retrieving data on the CDC website, Briand compiled a graph representing percentages of total deaths per age category from early February to early September, which includes the period from before COVID-19 was detected in the U.S. to after infection rates soared.

Surprisingly, the deaths of older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19. Since COVID-19 mainly affects the elderly, experts expected an increase in the percentage of deaths in older age groups. However, this increase is not seen from the CDC data. In fact, the percentages of deaths among all age groups remain relatively the same.

“The reason we have a higher number of reported COVID-19 deaths among older individuals than younger individuals is simply because every day in the U.S. older individuals die in higher numbers than younger individuals,” Briand said.

Briand also noted that 50,000 to 70,000 deaths are seen both before and after COVID-19, indicating that this number of deaths was normal long before COVID-19 emerged. Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.

These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States…

When Briand looked at the 2020 data during that seasonal period, COVID-19-related deaths exceeded deaths from heart diseases. This was highly unusual since heart disease has always prevailed as the leading cause of deaths. However, when taking a closer look at the death numbers, she noted something strange. As Briand compared the number of deaths per cause during that period in 2020 to 2018, she noticed that instead of the expected drastic increase across all causes, there was a significant decrease in deaths due to heart disease. Even more surprising, as seen in the graph below, this sudden decline in deaths is observed for all other causes.

This trend is completely contrary to the pattern observed in all previous years. Interestingly, as depicted in the table below , the total decrease in deaths by other causes almost exactly equals the increase in deaths by COVID-19. This suggests, according to Briand, that the COVID-19 death toll is misleading. Briand believes that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may instead be recategorized as being due to COVID-19.

Base on this analysis, the best way to end the ongoing mass-killing of elderly Britons would be to terminate the lockdowns and resume normal life. As Dr Simone Gold (of Frontline Doctors ) well explained, CV19 is just ‘killing’ elderly people who were about to die anyhow. It cannot be shown that ‘having’ CV19 i.e. testing PCR-‘positive’ contributed to shortening their life. So that isn’t a causal connection, i.e. the alleged illness has not ‘caused’ their death. That’s why the age-distribution of CV-19 is indistinguishable from that of the normal population.

The average age of death in England & Wales is 81.5 years, while the average age of ‘Covid-19 fatalities’ is 82.4 years (ONS data). What this tells us is very simple: the disease does not exist.

The concept of PCR ‘testing’ has always been fraudulent. The so-called PCR ‘test’ multiplies up fragments of nucleotide-chains and the number of ‘positive’ cases depends on the multiplication factor used as well as how many persons are tested. There will never come a time when the virus is ‘cured’ or ‘solved’ or whatever people imagine the government is trying to do (if it knows!), such that the PCR test ceases to generate ‘positive’ tests. No-one will ever give you evidence that people who test ‘positive’ get ill more often than others. Is there an aim of government policy, aside from terrorising the populace? Is it to kill the virus? That can never happen because the virus isn’t alive.

he World Health Organization has now backtracked over the PCR ‘test’, saying (January 13th) it is merely a diagnostic tool that can assist. It now advises –

Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology.

In other words, a single PCR test should not be used for diagnosing Sars-Cov-2 infection. It’s merely a guide!

Most PCR assays are indicated as an aid for diagnosis, therefore, health care providers must consider any result in combination with timing of sampling, specimen type, assay specifics, clinical observations, patient history, confirmed status of any contacts, and epidemiological information.

So we finally have it that the PCR cannot be relied upon a diagnostic test. Which is exactly what its inventor Kary Mullis said. So forget all of the figures you’ve heard about ‘cases’ and ‘covid deaths’ – they cannot be relied upon.

If one did want to believe there was a disease associated with this virus, then surely we’d agree with Dr Alexander Myasnikov, appointed last year as Russia’s chief medical advisor. In an interview he explained how the world had greatly over-reacted to the CV19 story and death numbers in the West were greatly over-counted. He added:

“It’s all exaggerated. It’s an acute respiratory disease with minimal mortality.”

Thus the former Chief Medical Officer of Ontario has recently challenged his government’s policy saying, “We’re Being Locked-down for an Infection Fatality Rate of Less than 0.2%?” and the lockdown is not “supported by strong science.” He here means, that for those who test PCR-positive one in five hundred will die. The time-period here involved needs to be defined, eg it could be one month: we all die, and given the median age of alleged-CV19 deaths is around 80 that could well be a normal rate of mortality – especially if they are PCR-testing everyone admitted to hospitals.

Last November a Cornish nurse went public, saying the hospital wards had been empty over months when it was claimed they were overflowing. She said whenever they had flu patients they were classified as Covid: ‘flu and Covid cases are now recorded as ‘the same thing’ on death certificates.’ . That wouldn’t be necessary if the disease really existed. Not surprisingly, the flu this winter has mysteriously vanished. One woman who walked round her local hospital filming its empty wards was arrested by police entering her home the next day.

The virus itself cannot be shown to exist, by which we mean that it cannot be reliably differentiated from all the other normal coronaviruses, that have been with us since time began. It has never been isolated, let’s be clear about that. Last April an EU science department admitted:

No virus isolates with a quantified amount of the SARS-CoV-2 are currently available …“

And the same thing was echoed a few months later by the US Centre for Disease Control:

Since no quantified virus isolates of the 2019-nCoV are currently available, assays [diagnostic tests] designed for detection of the 2019-nCoV RNA were tested with characterized stocks of in vitro transcribed full length RNA…”[2]

In other words, nobody can hold a test-tube or petri-dish and say, ‘Here is COVID-19.’ Published gene-sequences of the alleged virus are mere hypothetic constructs. Yes some disease broke out in Wuhan in November 2019 and yes the Chinese authorities published a gene-sequence allegedly of it, but so what?

Fear Porn Promotion

The government needs your fear. It wants your attention but knows that it has no prospect of improving your life in any way. Thus we have a health minister who knows nothing about health or well-being: he can get your attention by telling you that you won’t be able to fly without a vaccine. They need your fear, and in the last century the government was able to arouse your fear by threatening to press the nuclear button. That doesn’t work any more. The UK govts latest exercise in fear-porn advises citizens to behave as if they are ill. (‘Act like you’ve got it’) Yes, that sounds just like how to promote health.

It further promotes the diabolical idea that perfectly healthy persons can transmit disease (‘anyone can spread it’). Here one could quote the WHO expert Dr Maria van Kerkhove: ‘From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onwards to a secondary individual. Its very rare.’ (Head of the WHO Emerging disease and zoonosis unit at a news briefing from the UN agency’s headquarters at Geneva, 6.6.20). Admittedly she was pressured to backpedal and retract, but she did say it.[3]

In the words of the Daily Mail, ‘Terrifying new TV ads’ are being promoted by the Government (23 Jan 2021) The above fear-porn promotion is through the US media agency Omnigov, who signed a 110 million Lockdown advertising deal – on March 2nd, three weeks before the Lockdown.

The journalist Neil Clark commented[4] on ‘the report in the Daily Telegraph newspaper that the UK government struck a deal worth £119m with an American advertising company, OMD Group, urging people to ‘Stay Home, Stay Safe’ a full three weeks before Boris Johnson ordered a lockdown. Think about what this means.’ That meme ‘Stay home Stay safe’ would have been blueprinted the previous year at the US ‘Event 201’ by Bill Gates et. al. Fear blocks out rational, coherent thought which is why the government needs it.

People may be forgetting how debilitating winter flu can be and how it can last for weeks. Now they want to call it COVID. Let’s here support Prof. Dolores Cahill, who has been looking at the sequencing of PCR testing. In Ireland it was found that of fifteen hundred PCR tests ‘all of them were influenza A and B, not one of them were SARS-COV2.’ Her group will be seeking legal action where the tests come back as influenza rather than the specific CV19 and doctors can be sued for medical negligence. (Corbett Report, 23 mins) That sounds like a promising way of dealing with this phantomic virus.

‘Is this an epidemic of despair?’ asked that perceptive commentator Peter Hitchins. Scientists are trained not to take notice of emotions and instead to look for things, objects as causative agents, whereas here we agree with Peter Hitchens that the negative soul-conditions of the populace caused by government policies are leading to death. Hitchens’ article quotes the distinguished professor of medical microbiology, Sucharit Bhakdi:

‘He said that older people had the right to make efforts to stay fit, active, busy and healthy. But he warned that the shutdown of society would condemn them to early death by preventing this.

‘Social contacts and social events, theatre and music, travel and holiday recreation, sports and hobbies, all help to prolong their stay on earth. The life expectancy of millions is being shortened.’

In a prediction that has turned out to be terribly accurate, he added: ‘The horrifying impact on the world economy threatens the existence of countless people. The consequences for medical care are profound. Already services to patients who are in need are reduced, operations cancelled, practices empty, hospital personnel dwindling. All this will impact profoundly on our whole society.’

That is what is killing people, there is no other pandemic.

We’re here concerned with UK, however for comparison let’s end with a graph showing the US weekly mortality rate over 2020, showing the very same effect.

The graph shown an excess of 280k deaths above normal-expected levels, following the lockdown. The web-page hosting this graph states ‘The large spike in deaths in April 2020 corresponds to the coronavirus outbreak.’ I’m here suggesting a different view.

By Nick Kollerstrom, PhD, author of The Great British coronavirus Hoax, A Sceptics view (banned by Amazon.)

Notes

[1] Using fifty-two weeks i.e. 364 days of the year, from the week ending 3rd January 2020 to that of 1st January 2021, the ONS compares a week in 2020 with the average value for 2015-9.

[2] CDC ‘2019-Novel Coronavirus Real-Time PCR Diagnostic Panel performance characteristics’ p.39, 13.7.20. This has been scrubbed from the Web, but see BMJ response to it.

[3] A huge Chinese study of ten million around Wuhan between May and June showed ‘no evidence that positive cases without symptoms spread the disease’: Nature 20.11.20 ‘Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening’.

[4] RT ‘Covid-19 reverse psychology’ by Neil Clarke, 28.10.20, deleted but preserved on the Hugo Talks video

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Halfway through this winter of Covid, overall mortality is around normal for this time of year. Something doesn’t add up — RT Op-ed

Posted by M. C. on January 22, 2021

They do not provide context because, if they did, the public might see a graph such as this one, from the Telegraph article. It quite clearly shows the spring spike in overall mortality, which was caused by Covid (plus lockdowns). After that ends in summer, we see… nothing.

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/513141-covid-overall-mortality-normal/

By Peter Andrews, Irish science journalist and writer based in London. He has a background in the life sciences, and graduated from the University of Glasgow with a degree in genetics Although the numbers of deaths attributed to the virus in the UK are higher than they’ve ever been, in total, not many more people are dying than in any other cold season. Is the mainstream media finally waking up to this?

A recent article in the Telegraph is one of the first in a mainstream outlet to even suggest a challenge to the official coronavirus narrative. These days, that narrative claims that the ‘second wave’ is actually deadlier than the first. (Recently, some Branch Covidians have been claiming a ‘third wave’, but there is not yet a united front on that.)

The basic reasoning of the article is sound, even if it is long overdue. It laments how every day, the media solemnly reports the latest figures on Covid deaths. Presenting this figure in isolation results in graphs such as this one, which does indeed seem to show that we are at the height of a second, worse phase of a pandemic. But, like any statistics, daily death numbers are meaningless without context, which the media rarely provides.

They do not provide context because, if they did, the public might see a graph such as this one, from the Telegraph article. It quite clearly shows the spring spike in overall mortality, which was caused by Covid (plus lockdowns). After that ends in summer, we see… nothing. Overall mortality ever since, even through this winter, hovers at around the five-year average. And overall mortality, as I’ve repeatedly pointed out, is the only true way to know whether you are in a pandemic or not – all other figures can easily be fiddled.

Out of whack

So, why are the excess death data and the Covid deaths data so out of whack? And why isn’t Covid killing lots and lots of people this winter, as it did in spring? Even if you ascribe all excess deaths to Covid and none to lockdown, there really does not seem to be anything out of the normal variation in total deaths from year to year. And surely, by now, the toll of unnecessary deaths caused by untreated cancer, heart disease, depression and so on, has at least begun to register.

One reason coronavirus might not be slaying all around it this winter is because, well, this is not its first winter. Remember: it is called Covid-19, as in 2019. Of course, the official version of history states that the virus never reached Western civilisation until the spring of 2020, but evidence for this assertion is based on dodgy polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests and a profound rejection of common sense. (By the way, how many people do you know who had a severe bout of pneumonia-like symptoms last winter?)

But the main reason for the disparity is obvious: mass PCR testing. Under the current regime (science is the wrong word), a ‘Covid death’ is someone who dies having tested positive for Covid within the previous 28 days. When you test all hospital patients, as the UK does, then some of them will turn out to be positive – how many depends largely on the way you do the tests. And the more tests you do, the more ‘Covid deaths’ you will generate. It is that simple. Dr Mike Yeadon has written extensively on this, which he calls the PCR false positive pseudo-epidemic.

Too little, too late

In another time, it might have been shocking that it took so long for the science editor of a broadsheet newspaper to wonder why, in the midst of a killer pandemic the world’s not seen for a century or so, the number of people dying in the country is ordinary. Better late than never I suppose, but do not take this as a sign that the reinforcements are coming. Even this article makes absolutely certain to pledge allegiance to Covid orthodoxy, stating without evidence that “severe restrictions were … clearly essential to control the growing pandemic’’.

Most people do not get their information by sifting through government-issued statistics on websites designed to hinder you. But there used to be a word for someone who got paid to do exactly that and then tell the public, in plain English, what they found. Oh, that’s right – we used to call those people ‘journalists’. There don’t seem to be many of them about these days, not even at the Telegraph.

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Murder by lockdown: details from a dozen countries « Jon Rappoport’s Blog

Posted by M. C. on July 2, 2020

THE LOCKDOWNS FORCED THE PREMATURE DEATHS OF OLD PEOPLE.

AND WHO ARE SUDDENLY TERRIFIED BY TWO MORE FACTORS—THE POSSIBILITY OF A COVID-19 DIAGNOSIS, AND ISOLATION FROM FRIENDS AND FAMILY. THESE TWO FACTORS PUSH THEM OVER THE EDGE AND THEY DIE.

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/07/01/murder-by-lockdown-details-from-a-dozen-countries/

by Jon Rappoport

The reference here is a stunning May 23 article by John Pospichal, “Questions for lockdown apologists,” posted at medium.com.

(This is part-4 in the series, “Killing Old People”. For part-3, click here.)

Pospichal examined overall mortality numbers for Austria, Belgium, Denmark, England and Wales, France, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ecuador, and New York City.

Supported by charts, here are excerpts from his article:

“We now have mortality data for the first few months of 2020 for many countries, and, as you might expect, there were steep increases associated with the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in each one.”

“Surprisingly, however, these increases did not begin before the lockdowns were imposed, but after. Moreover, in almost every case, they began immediately after. Often, mortality numbers were on a downward trend before suddenly reversing course after lockdowns were decreed.”

“This is an astonishing finding…”

“You will notice that only after each country (or city) was locked down did the increases begin. Moreover, they began immediately, and in nearly every case, precipitously.”

“All this leads us to the following questions, which we pose to all those who continue to defend the use of lockdowns as an effective means to prevent excess deaths.”

“Q: Why was there no significant increase in overall mortality, in any country we have good data for, before the start of lockdowns?”

“Q: Why does a precise and exact correlation exist between the start of lockdowns and significant rises in overall mortality?”

“Q: How is it that governments in every country imposed lockdowns at precisely the same time relative to the future precipitous rise in their populations’ overall mortality rate?”

“Q: How is it, moreover, that this moment in time [i.e., the imposition of lockdowns] happened to fall immediately before that precipitous rise?”

“Q: If health authorities vastly underestimated the prevalence of the virus at the beginning of the pandemic, why did the virus nevertheless wait until lockdowns were imposed to suddenly start killing at levels which exceeded normal deaths?”

—To that last question, I would respond: No virus would wait. We’re not talking about a virus at all. We’re talking about the sudden effects of the lockdowns.

And those sudden death-effects would come crashing down, first, and immediately, on the most vulnerable people in these countries:

The elderly, who were already ill for years.

THE LOCKDOWNS FORCED THE PREMATURE DEATHS OF OLD PEOPLE.

PEOPLE WHO HAD BEEN SUFFERING FROM MULTIPLE HEALTH CONDITIONS FOR YEARS, WHO HAD BEEN TREATED WITH TOXIC MEDICAL DRUGS, WHOSE IMMUNE SYSTEMS WERE ALREADY SEVERELY COMPROMISED…

AND WHO ARE SUDDENLY TERRIFIED BY TWO MORE FACTORS—THE POSSIBILITY OF A COVID-19 DIAGNOSIS, AND ISOLATION FROM FRIENDS AND FAMILY. THESE TWO FACTORS PUSH THEM OVER THE EDGE AND THEY DIE.

Especially in nursing homes; but also in hospitals, and in their homes.

This is the true face of “COVID.”

This is how the case numbers and the death numbers are being propped up all over the world, to yield the impression of a virus on the loose.

Without those huge numbers, the whole vicious charade of a pandemic would be exposed and rejected at once.

The lockdowns are a method of killing.

The governors and mayors and presidents and prime ministers who imposed the lockdowns—and behind them, the planners of “COVID”— have been killing old people.

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Epidemiology – LewRockwell

Posted by M. C. on April 27, 2020

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/04/george-giles/epidemiology/

By

…In closing I would like to make the point that every doctor is considered a medical expert and their opinions are to be taken as scientific fact and that this is very dangerous. Thanks to my 20 years of working in academic and enterprise healthcare I learned that the majority of doctors do not have PhD’s and have not done published peer-reviewed research at the level of rigor of a hard scientist like a physicist, a chemist, biologist or a mathematician. Most physicians use the product of science but that does not make them scientists and they should not be treated as such. Talking heads that blither ‘scientistically’ just need to be ignored. If we as a society do not, then we do so at our own peril.

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'Due to funding cuts, the Government has supplied us with its very own doctor!'

‘Due to funding cuts, the Government has supplied us with its very own doctor!’

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