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Posts Tagged ‘Herd immunity’

Big Pharma CEO Blows a Hole in Vaccine Mandates – American Thinker

Posted by M. C. on January 19, 2022

Yet the left keeps pushing COVID vaccine mandates, despite the Pfizer CEO, CDC Director, and the US Supreme Court saying, perhaps in a roundabout way, that they are of no benefit. Hopefully, the Supreme Court’s trend continues, with a thoughtful analysis of our public measures, following the science rather than simply saying “do this because I say so.”

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/01/big_pharma_ceo_blows_a_hole_in_vaccine_mandates.html

Brian C. Joondeph, M.D.

See also: Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla Makes Startling Admissions About the Vaccines

Vaccine mandates are one of many stifling measures brought on by the ongoing COVID pandemic, a consequence of those trying to “follow the science” and doing anything but or of government and bureaucrat officials using the opportunity to flex their authoritarian muscles. Whether they serve a useful societal function is an open question.

The CDC website cites a book chapter by research scholars Kevin Malone and Alan Hinman that describes vaccine mandates as a means of “drastically reducing infectious diseases in the United States.” Mandates present a challenge “when societal interest conflicts with the individual’s interest.” With vaccine mandates, there is the assumption that “Increased immunization rates result in significantly decreased risk for disease.”

According to the chapter,

Although no remaining unimmunized individual can be said to be free of risk from the infectious disease, the herd effect generated from high immunization rates significantly reduces the risk for disease for those individuals. Additional benefit is conferred on the unimmunized person because avoidance of the vaccine avoids the risk for any adverse reactions associated with the vaccine. As disease rates drop, the risks associated with the vaccine come even more to the fore, providing further incentive to avoid immunization. Thus, when an individual in this common chooses to go unimmunized, it only minimally increases the risk of illness for that individual, while conferring on that person the benefit of avoiding the risk of vaccine induced side effects.

Herd immunity, a term that can get one banned from social media and polite society, is the key. Both vaccines and natural infection can achieve herd immunity. Once herd immunity is reached, the risk-benefit ratio pivots from less benefit for every last person being vaccinated to more risk from vaccine adverse effects. This is the logical way infectious diseases have been approached in the past, until COVID apparently changed relatively settled science regarding vaccines, masks, distancing, and mandates.

The above premise assumes that the vaccine in question prevents contracting and transmitting the underlying infectious disease. Or as the chapter describes, “An important characteristic of most vaccines is that they provide both individual and community protection.”

Are the COVID vaccines providing both individual and community protection? If they are, then a case may be made for vaccine mandates although that is debatable. If not, then such mandates make no sense.

An excellent person to ask is Albert Bourla, the CEO of Pfizer, the largest COVID vaccine maker. In a recent Yahoo Finance interview, Bourla let the cat out of the vaccine bag,

And we know that the two doses of the vaccine offer very limited protection, if any. The three doses, with the booster, they offer reasonable protection against hospitalization and deaths—and, again, that’s, I think, very good—and less protection against the infection.

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“Limited protection if any,” is not a strong endorsement. It’s a polite way of saying two doses of the vaccine don’t work as previously described and promised. And with a booster, the protection becomes “reasonable.” He didn’t say robust or excellent, only reasonable, meaning that there is limited benefit. And it’s a benefit to the individual, not to other people.

An umbrella provides “limited protection if any” in a hurricane and a raincoat offers “reasonable” protection but, in both cases, you will get soaked and blown around.

YouTube screen grab.

I must add the standard and necessary disclaimer that I am not anti-vaccine, having been personally fully vaccinated. Nor am I offering medical advice, only an analysis of this recent news item. Any vaccine decisions should be between you and your physician based on a thoughtful analysis of risks and benefits, as is standard for any medical intervention.

When Big Pharma doesn’t believe its own spin anymore, though, why should anyone else?

See the rest here

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Everywhere You Look, COVID “Vaccines” Are Failing

Posted by M. C. on December 18, 2021

https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/everywhere-you-look-covid-vaccines-are-failing

Ethan Huff
December 14th, 2021
Natural News

This article was originally published by Ethan Huff at Natural News. 

If data and science are really what Branch Covidians care about as they claim, then it is time for them to acknowledge that in every area of the world where Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) “vaccine” uptake is high, injuries and deaths are soaring.

In Singapore, for instance, where 85 percent of the entire population – children included – are now “fully vaccinated,” the death toll is orders of magnitude higher than ever before. The same is true in Iceland (76 percent fully vaccinated) and The Netherlands (70 percent fully vaccinated).

In Vermont, the most vaccinated state in America at 71 percent fully vaccinated (and roughly 88 percent partially vaccinated), the death toll is likewise higher than ever before – including during the “peak” of the plandemic.

How can this be if Fauci Flu shots are the “cure” that will bring us safely into the new normal? If what the government and the mainstream media have been saying is true, then the Chinese Virus should already be long gone now that “herd” immunity has been reached.

The fact that the opposite is true just goes to show that the narrative has failed. The jabs are clearly making people sicker, and yet the Biden regime is now pushing “boosters” as the solution to the problem that the initial shots created.

See the rest here

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Vaccine Passports: Your Ticket To Tyranny

Posted by M. C. on March 29, 2021

Mainstream media is reporting that the Biden Administration is seriously looking into establishing some kind of Federal vaccine passport system, where Americans who cannot (or will not) prove to the government they have been jabbed with the experimental vaccine will be legally treated as second-class citizens. The system will quickly morph into a copy of China’s “social credit” system, where undesirable behaviors are severely punished. With Covid dying out across the country as herd immunity is reached, “vaccine passports” seems more about more government control than public health.

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Fauci’s Failures Are Firing Offenses – Issues & Insights

Posted by M. C. on March 4, 2021

Just a week ago, Fauci made what to some was a stunning admission: “We’ve done worse than most any country” in managing the outbreak, he said. We say “stunning” because Fauci, as head of NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, is the official most responsible for the U.S. response.

Same is true of school closures. As one blogger aptly noted, “Fauci’s ‘evolving’ positions’ … went all the way from ‘close schools immediately’ to ‘close the bars, open schools’ to ‘schools can only open if the Biden stimulus bill passes.’ “

https://issuesinsights.com/2021/03/02/faucis-failures-are-firing-offenses/

by I & I Editorial Board

Dr. Anthony Fauci. Photo: NIAID, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/deed.en).

I&I Editorial

Dr. Anthony Fauci has impressive credentials and a lengthy tenure as a top-level government health official dating back to 1984. But his performance during the COVID-19 pandemic has been abysmal, with politicized non-science-based edicts and frequently reversed “medical advice” that have confused and frightened Americans.

Just a week ago, Fauci made what to some was a stunning admission: “We’ve done worse than most any country” in managing the outbreak, he said. We say “stunning” because Fauci, as head of NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, is the official most responsible for the U.S. response.

His 2019 pay of $417,608 makes him the nation’s highest paid federal official. As a scientist, he’s held in very high esteem by many, particularly those on the left, who see his sweeping powers – lockdowns, masking, social distancing – as a nifty means of social control. It’s control of 330 million people via social isolation and nonstop browbeating of those who dare to diverge from the oppressive “new normal” we all now experience on a daily basis.

The big problem has been Fauci’s pronunciamentos are often nonsensical, not supported by science or contradictory. “These are my principles,” Groucho Marx once said. “If you don’t like these, I have others.” That’s Fauci.

Take masking, for instance. The Daily Wire counted five different mask policies by Fauci as of Feb. 11. Oops! Make that six. After calling masking “largely symbolic” last spring and telling Americans “don’t wear masks,” he now suggests we need to “double mask” and that it might last into 2022.

This, despite some doctors and researchers claims that masking doesn’t do much. After reviewing multiple studies, the group Science-Based Medicine concluded that “the benefit (of masking) is likely to be modest. It should not be considered full protection, but just a way to reduce the chance of spread a little bit.”

Others note that masking may even hurt users by raising their carbon dioxide intake. Heck, Fauci himself even downplayed masking’s positive effects.

Then there’s his bizarre recent edict that even those vaccinated shouldn’t be allowed to dine inside a restaurant or go to the movies. Why not? No way to know. We do know that neither movie theaters nor restaurants are “superspreader” sites, or even “spreader” sites, for that matter.

The Centers for Disease Control claims from its own very limited survey that restaurants pose a major threat to spreading the virus. But literally tens of thousands of data points from surveys in New York and Minnesota show minuscule infection rates: Just 1.4% of New York cases resulted from restaurants, while 1.7% in Minnesota did.

By the way, data for retailers, gyms, and “hair & personal care” salons were even lower.

This compares with roughly 74% of cases contracted in the home. Should people stop going there, too?

Same is true of school closures. As one blogger aptly noted, “Fauci’s ‘evolving’ positions’ … went all the way from ‘close schools immediately’ to ‘close the bars, open schools’ to ‘schools can only open if the Biden stimulus bill passes.’ “

In short, another incoherent policy robbing millions of children of a year or more of in-place schooling, largely dictated by leftist teachers unions that have shown how little they care about educating kids.

What about the whole idea of “herd immunity”? When the outbreak began, Fauci suggested that 60% or 70% being vaccinated would be enough to stop COVID-19’s march. Now, he says it’s more like 90%, after admitting to The New York Times and others that he basically lied to manipulate people into doing what he wanted them to do.

It’s like a bizarre game of “Simon Says,” with Dr. Fauci as Simon. But it’s not “science,” the left’s new god, that Fauci’s guided by. No, he uses deceptive propaganda and policy pronouncements on behalf of dubious bureaucratic goals that have little to do with hard science, but a lot to do with politics.

Once the Democrats understood that Fauci was politically malleable, the left media followed suit and adopted him as their new hero. He could do no wrong. He even became a heartthrob of sorts, leading the Washington Post’s Sally Quinn to call him “sexy” and CNN’s Alisyn Camerota to wax ecstatic about his many qualities. And, no joke, Rolling Stone ran a piece titled, “We Read Dr. Anthony Fauci-inspired Erotic Fiction So That You Don’t Have To.”

Turning Fauci into a fetish object whose every utterance is treated as scientific gospel has only served to punish the rest of us with interminable lockdowns, quarantines, preventable suicides, isolation, chronic fear, clinical depression, school-less children, lost businesses and jobs, and absurd social distancing rules based on nothing more than guesses,

We’re now well into a massive vaccination program, thanks to former President Donald Trump’s Operation Warp Speed, announced just 10 months ago. By the end of the year, it produced not one but two and now three vaccines to help us banish COVID-19 and return to normal life. With herd immunity on the horizon, we’re almost there.

That is, unless we continue to follow the wrong turns, reversals, delays and just plain bad science that have resulted from Fauci’s bureaucratic malpractice. With half a million dead from a virus that’s only a little more deadly than a bad flu strain, Fauci’s poor policy prescriptions have come up far short of what one might expect of the nation’s highest-paid federal official.

None of the above includes his other, often forgotten policy failures and missteps during earlier disease outbreaks (including ebola in 2014 and AIDs in the 1980s). It’s time for the president and Congress to ask Fauci to resign after 37 years of less-than-spectacular performance. If not, his failures will become theirs.

— Written by the I&I Editorial Board

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A Warning for Vaccine-hesitant Truth-seekers: The 0.01% Have It in for You – LewRockwell

Posted by M. C. on January 30, 2021

It also must be emphasized that true “herd immunity” cannot be achieved by vaccinations. Herd immunity to infectious respiratory diseases can only be achieved by natural exposure to infectious bacterial or viral agents. Intramuscular vaccinations cannot produce both serological/antibody immunity and cellular/mucosal immunity. Claims by those corporate-controlled entities (such as the WHO, the CDC, the NIAID, the FDA, the AMA, the AAP, the World Economic Forum, Bill Gates, the Mayo Clinic [a WEF partner], etc) that claim that vaccine-achievable herd immunity can be achieved through vaccination campaigns – are liars, dupes or vaccinology-illiterate – or all three.)

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2021/01/gary-g-kohls/a-warning-for-vaccine-hesitant-truth-seekers-the-0-01-have-it-in-for-you/

By Gary G. Kohls, MD

This article is designed to expose the Rockefeller Foundation, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the World Economic Forum, the WHO, the CDC, the NIAID, even the Mayo Clinic, etc, etc for their profit-minded, corporation-corrupted pseudoscience, their abandonment of medical ethical principles, their vaccinology-illiteracy and/or their deception concerning the declared pandemic.

_______________________________________________________

There is a new, and particularly nefarious money-making scheme that is described below. It is based on the wide-spread – and FALSE – assumption that the new, fast-tracked Covid-19 vaccines (or any vaccine, for that matter) are effective in both preventing 1) getting infected with the intended virus and also 2) becoming contagious after getting inoculated!! Neither outcome has been proven with the published clinical trials. All of the new vaccines are likely useless on both counts.

In fact, none of the Big Vaccine corporations that are making these potentially dangerous, synthetic genome-modifying vaccines have actually made the claim that their vaccines are effective in preventing infection or contagion, even after getting the required two inoculations – much less the initial shot!

The only claim these billionaire-owned pharmaceutical corporations (most of all of which are members of the World Economic Forum) make is that a certain percentage of vaccinated individuals are capable of developing some uncertain level of serological immunity (ie antibody production). But it is well-known that intramuscular injection of vaccines are incapable of stimulating cellular/mucosal immunity, which is the other, unmentioned by industry, but most important part of human immunity. Cellular immunity is only possible with sufficient exposure to a natural infectious agent via inhalation of a sizable number of viral- or bacterial-infected droplets,

It also must be emphasized that true “herd immunity” cannot be achieved by vaccinations. Herd immunity to infectious respiratory diseases can only be achieved by natural exposure to infectious bacterial or viral agents. Intramuscular vaccinations cannot produce both serological/antibody immunity and cellular/mucosal immunity. Claims by those corporate-controlled entities (such as the WHO, the CDC, the NIAID, the FDA, the AMA, the AAP, the World Economic Forum, Bill Gates, the Mayo Clinic [a WEF partner], etc) that claim that vaccine-achievable herd immunity can be achieved through vaccination campaigns – are liars, dupes or vaccinology-illiterate – or all three.)

Interestingly, the vaccine corporations or the government pharma-co-opted bureaucrats involved in pushing the BIG LIE about vaccine usefulness do not actually make any statements about whether or not these vaccines are capable of developing even partial immunity to any of the common coronavirus mutations that have been found (and then conveniently used as propaganda tools to keep the level of fear about Covid-19 at panic levels).

Shame on the Mayo Clinic for trusting the untrustworthy, profiteering establishment entities of Big Pharma, Big Medicine and Big Media, entities that are telling the Big Lie of “95% (ie, ‘relative’) effectiveness” rates for Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines rather that scientifically looking at the only reliable measure of vaccine efficacy: the “actual” or “absolute” effectiveness rate, which is actually 0.8% for both Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines, neither one of which has yet been proven to be safe or effective long-term.

Sadly, the once medical science-based Mayo Clinic has seemingly joined forces with the Big Pharma-co-opted entities that are connected to the World Economic Forum’s virology-illiterate Bill Gates. The WEF-involvement of so many of America’s profit-oriented medical trade associations, clinics or hospitals – has revealed its blindness and/or ignorance about vaccinology. These revelations, if true, should provoke serious concern about Mayo’s ineptitude or its willingness to reject traditional medical ethical principles about fully informed consent or its commitment to the Hippocratic Oath.

Read the following article to decide for yourself if people who are vaccine-hesitant should concerned about the Covid Passport plan.

Microsoft, Big Tech Coalition Developing Rockefeller-Funded COVID Passports

The Most Significant Vaccination Effort in History’ by Steve Watson, Summit News

The Best of Gary G. Kohls, MD Dr. Kohls [send him mail] is a retired physician from Duluth, MN, USA. In the decade prior to his retirement, he practiced what could best be described as “holistic (non-drug) and preventive mental health care”. Since his retirement, he has written a weekly column for the Duluth Reader, an alternative newsweekly magazine. His columns mostly deal with the dangers of American imperialism, friendly fascism, corporatism, militarism, racism, and the dangers of Big Pharma, psychiatric drugging, the over-vaccinating of children and other movements that threaten American democracy, civility, health and longevity and the future of the planet. Many of his columns are archived at Duluthreader.com, Globalresearch.ca or at Transcend.org.

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Sweden Has Had Schools Open, Over One Million Kids & No Deaths – Collective Evolution

Posted by M. C. on January 13, 2021

https://www.collective-evolution.com/2021/01/08/study-sweden-has-schools-open-millions-of-kids-no-masks-no-lockdown-no-deaths/

In Brief

  • The Facts:A letter to the editor published in the New England Journal of Medicine outlines how despite no lockdowns, school closings, or mask mandates no school children have died from Covid-19, and 1 in 130,000 have been admitted to the ICU.
  • Reflect On:How dangerous is Covid for children? Is it less dangerous than the flu? Does the data justify lockdown measures and school closing? All of this is discussed within the article.

What Happened:  A letter to the editor published in the New England Journal of Medicine titled “Open Schools, Covid-19, and Child and Teacher Morbidity in Sweden” has found that “Despite Sweden’s having kept schools and preschools open, we found a low incidence of severe Covid-19 among schoolchildren and children of preschool age during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic…No child with Covid-19 died…Among the 1,951,905 million children who were 1 to 16 years of age, 15 children had Covid-19, MIS-C, or both conditions and were admitted to an ICU, which is equal to 1 child in 130,000.”

Sweden was one of the few countries that decided to keep schools open. The study points out that the number of deaths from any cause among the 1,951,905 children in Sweden (as of December 31, 2019) who were 1 to 16 years of age was 65 during the pre-Covid-19 period of November 2019 through February of 2020 was 65, and 69 during 4 months of exposure to Covid-19 between March and June of 2020. The data shows that there was no significant difference here.

When it comes to teachers, the study showed that  “fewer than 10 preschool teachers and 20 schoolteachers in Sweden received intensive care for Covid-19 up until June 30, 2020 (20 per 103,596 schoolteachers, which is equal to 19 per 100,000). As compared with other occupations (excluding health care workers), this corresponded to sex- and age-adjusted relative risks of 1.10 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.49 to 2.49) among preschool teachers and 0.43 (95% CI, 0.28 to 0.68) among schoolteachers (see the Supplementary Appendix).

In a Karolinska Institute press release, lead author and pediatrician Jonas Ludvigsson, MD, PhD, indicated he was hopeful about the results. “It is very gratifying that serious COVID-19, defined here as needing treatment in an intensive care unit, is so rare among children despite schools being open during the pandemic,” he said.

“The next step will be to follow up the children who were treated in an intensive care unit for COVID-19 to see if they have recovered fully. My gut feeling is that children who have been seriously ill because of MIS-C seem to recover fully eventually.”

The point is, children are not being admitted to the ICU in Sweden for C0vid-19, and children are not dying from Covid-19. Severe Covid-19 among children seems to be rare, and also has a 100 percent recovery rate. Given the fact that many infections are also asymptomatic, it really has no impact on their life. So, while we continue to hear that cases are soaring, it’s important to ask if this is really a big deal? And why is it that other viruses prior to this one that infect hundreds of millions and kill tens of millions a year were not subjected to the same scrutiny? Is it because authorities are worried that children will be a vector of transmission? Do asymptomatic people spread Covid?

This data also echoes what many doctors and scientists have been expressing regarding the severity of the virus, not just for children but for everybody. For example, Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, MD, PhD, from the Stanford University School of Medicine in California recently appeared on a JAMA (The Journal of the American Medical Association) Network conversation alongside Mark Lipsitch, DPhil and Dr. Howard Bauchner, who interviews leading researchers and thinkers in health care about their JAMA articles.

During the conversation, Dr. Bhattacharya said that the survival rate from COVID-19, based on approximately 50 studies that’ve been published providing seroprevalence data, for people over 70 years of age is 95 percent. For people under the age of 70, the survival rate of COVID-19 is 99.95 percent. He went on to state that the flu is more dangerous than COVID-19 for children, and that we’ve (America) had more flu deaths in children this year than Covid deaths.

Bhattacharya is one of the initiators of The Great Barrington Declaration. The declaration has an impressive list of renowned scientists who have come on board as co-signers, and has now been signed by more than 50,000 doctors and scientists. It’s an initiative that strongly opposes lockdown measures.

Why This Is Important: This information is important because lockdown measures, according to many, aren’t really doing anything to stop the spread of the virus and may be delaying “herd immunity.” Furthermore we are taking all of these measures based on case counts, and a virus that has an extremely low mortality rate. Respiratory viruses prior to Covid already infected hundreds of millions and killed tens of millions a year. What’s even more concerning is the fact that medical professionals and scientists who share information that opposes the measures being taken by multiple governments are being subjected to extreme amounts of censorship. Scientific discussion is being shut down and we are seeing one opinion and side receive all of the attention.

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Did Fauci Just Admit He Lied About Herd Immunity To Trick Americans Into Vaccine? | ZeroHedge

Posted by M. C. on December 25, 2020

The Times’ Ross Douthat called Fauci out for shifting the goalposts.

When you can’t just “trust the science” because the scientists keep lying to you and then saying, “oh, that was just a noble lie, sorry about that.”https://t.co/2SKAiGiBto pic.twitter.com/hl06rjM7tA — Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) December 24, 2020

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/did-fauci-just-admit-he-lied-about-herd-immunity-trick-americans-vaccine

Tyler Durden's Photoby Tyler Durden

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Democrat-approved ‘science’ in ‘trust the science,’ appears to have just admitted to lying about COVID-19 herd immunity in order to goad more people into taking the vaccine, according to a new report in the New York Times.

At issue is the percentage of the population which must require resistance to the coronavirus – through infection or vaccination – in order for the disease to disappear.

Early into the pandemic, Fauci repeatedly claimed ‘60-70%‘ herd immunity was required to achieve herd immunity. Beginning around a month ago, however, Fauci’s estimate drifted higher – to “70, 75 percent,” and more recently telling CNBC “75, 80, 85 percent” and “75 to 80-plus percent.”

When asked about it, Fauci essentially said he lied for political purposes due to vaccine skeptics.

In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci acknowledged that he had slowly but deliberately been moving the goal posts. He is doing so, he said, partly based on new science, and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks.

Hard as it may be to hear, he said, he believes that it may take close to 90 percent immunity to bring the virus to a halt — almost as much as is needed to stop a measles outbreak.

Asked about Dr. Fauci’s conclusions, prominent epidemiologists said that he might be proven right. The early range of 60 to 70 percent was almost undoubtedly too low, they said, and the virus is becoming more transmissible, so it will take greater herd immunity to stop it.

Dr. Fauci said that weeks ago, he had hesitated to publicly raise his estimate because many Americans seemed hesitant about vaccines, which they would need to accept almost universally in order for the country to achieve herd immunity.

And with polls now suggesting more Americans are willing to take the vaccines, Fauci (who said in November COVID-19 ‘won’t be a pandemic for much longer‘) says he’s ready to come clean.

“When polls said only about half of all Americans would take a vaccine, I was saying herd immunity would take 70 to 75 percent,” he said, adding “Then, when newer surveys said 60 percent or more would take it, I thought, ‘I can nudge this up a bit,’ so I went to 80, 85.”

“We need to have some humility here,” Fauci then said. “We really don’t know what the real number is. I think the real range is somewhere between 70 to 90 percent. But, I’m not going to say 90 percent,” because doing so might discourage Americans.

The Times’ Ross Douthat called Fauci out for shifting the goalposts.

When you can’t just “trust the science” because the scientists keep lying to you and then saying, “oh, that was just a noble lie, sorry about that.”https://t.co/2SKAiGiBto pic.twitter.com/hl06rjM7tA — Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) December 24, 2020

Will Democrats give Fauci equal treatment to Trump, who was viciously attacked by the left for downplaying the virus during its early days in order to prevent a panic?

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Pandemics Are Over When the Public Decides They’re Over | Mises Wire

Posted by M. C. on November 23, 2020

We’ll ignore the creepy framing of the issue around how citizens have lamentably “grown accustomed to certain freedoms” like being able to leave one’s home. But Fenberg is right to think the public is unlikely to be nearly as compliant this time around.

Whether or not the presence of a disease presents an acceptable risk to “the public” depends on countless individual risk assessments.

https://mises.org/wire/pandemics-are-over-when-public-decides-theyre-over

Ryan McMaken

In Colorado, reported cases and hospitalizations of covid-19 patients are at higher levels than ever before. And yet politicians are worried that if they issue new stay-at-home orders, the public won’t obey them. For instance the Denver Post last week reported Colorado Democrats admitted the public isn’t listening very closely anymore:

[State senator Steve] Fenberg and many other state leaders are worried…about whether a stay-at-home order would even work this time around. People have grown accustomed to certain freedoms since the spring, and already there are some in the population resistant even to the least oppressive rules, such as wearing masks.

“They don’t want to have restrictive orders that people just entirely ignore,” Fenberg said. “Once you cross that line, that seriously, then it really starts to unravel, when people completely check out from following the orders.”

We’ll ignore the creepy framing of the issue around how citizens have lamentably “grown accustomed to certain freedoms” like being able to leave one’s home. But Fenberg is right to think the public is unlikely to be nearly as compliant this time around.

And what happens if Americans start acting as if there were no pandemic? Then, the pandemic is at a de facto end, even if “experts” insist that it is still a de jure reality.

Medical Pandemics vs. Social Pandemics

In other words, government agencies may issue declarations of when pandemics end, but as noted in the New York Times last May,

pandemics typically have two types of endings: the medical, which occurs when the incidence and death rates plummet, and the social, when the epidemic of fear about the disease wanes.

“When people ask, ‘When will this end?,’ they are asking about the social ending,” said Dr[.] Jeremy Greene, a historian of medicine at Johns Hopkins. In other words, an end can occur not because a disease has been vanquished but because people grow tired of panic mode and learn to live with a disease

This has happened before. During the 1957–58 Asian flu pandemic, for example, the public took little notice of the fact that the flu was especially virulent that year. It is now estimated that more than a hundred thousand died of the flu in the period, which would be the equivalent of 220,000 Americans today. Indeed, Americans continued to die from the Asian flu into the 1960 flu season and beyond. But as far as the public was concerned, there had been no pandemic that required staying home or closing schools.

[Read More: “Why Didn’t the 1958 and 1918 Pandemics Destroy the Economy?” by Ryan McMaken]

Many Americans are apparently already moving in that direction now. According to a new report this month from Gallup, the percentage of Americans saying they are “very likely” to shelter in place has fallen from 67 percent in late March to 49 percent as of November 1. The percentage of respondents saying they are “very unlikely” or “somewhat unlikely” to adhere to stay-at-home orders has doubled from 15 percent to 33 percent. Notably, this trend has occurred in spite of more Americans in the survey also saying they think the virus situation is “getting worse.” In other words, Americans don’t think the disease is about to go away, but less than half say it’s very likely they’ll be sitting at home.

At this point, it’s a fairly safe bet that even as more and more Americans conclude they can’t put their lives on hold indefinitely, government bureaucrats will continue to insist that the pandemic puts everyone at grave risk.

But the public and technocrats often function on different schedules. After all, sitting at home for months or even years may work for childless, white-collar intellectuals and bureaucrats who can easily work from home and need not worry about the social and emotional development of children and others in their care. But many others are likely to view that model of daily life as thoroughly untenable.

Moreover, many currently unemployed Americans—who number in the millions—may conclude that collecting unemployment checks indefinitely is not a satisfactory substitute for making a living the ordinary way.

Making Risk Assessments

All of this will go into calculating risk, and this is why the public’s recognized end to pandemics is often different from the “official” end. The public is made up of countless individuals who make their own risk assessments based on the available facts.

This also is why it’s impossible to declare with finality when “herd immunity” has been reached. As Michel Accad explained last month at mises.org:

while herd immunity may indeed be a real phenomenon that can take place under certain circumstances when populations are subjected to a contagious disease, it is important to recognize that herd immunity is not a concept that has any practical value for setting public health policy.

For one thing, there is no objective way to establish that herd immunity has been achieved, since a “stable” rate of new infection is a subjective notion. What is a stable or tolerable rate of infection for me may not be so for you.

Whether or not the presence of a disease presents an acceptable risk to “the public” depends on countless individual risk assessments.

With stay-at-home orders, on the other hand, government officials have taken it upon themselves to apply an arbitrary bureaucrat-enforced definition of acceptable risk. These officials insist they must have the power to force the public to retreat to their home until some central political authority has determined that the risk level has dropped to an acceptable level.

How Much Risk Are We Willing to Accept When Driving?

Governments have tried this in other contexts as well.

When it comes to highway safety, for instance, federal and state government agencies spent years trying to convince Americans that “55 saves lives” and that driving at slower speeds would save thousands of American lives per year.

This in itself was not an unreasonable goal, of course. Nowadays, more than thirty-eight thousand people die every year in crashes on US roadways. An additional 4.4 million are injured seriously enough to require medical attention, and auto accidents are the leading cause of death in the US for people aged 1–54.

[Read More: “What the Failed 55-MPH Speed Limit Law Tells Us about COVID Lockdowns” by Ryan McMaken]

A concerted effort to bring down highway deaths could save hundreds of thousands of lives over a single decade. Moreover, the act of driving on the highway—especially at high speeds—heightens the risk not only for one’s self but for other motorists as well. This means if Americans would consent to drive at slow speeds, wear helmets when driving, and refrain from driving for “nonessential” reasons, countless lives could be saved.

Yet, clearly, most Americans have long since concluded that maximizing safety on the highway isn’t worth the trouble, either to increase their own safety or the safety of others. Countless American drivers routinely drive at high speed. Some don’t even wear seat belts. Many people drive to the store or the movies when they could “be safe” by just staying at home. Yet these nonessential motorists continue to put others at risk in this manner.

Few Americans seem to regard this as a serious problem. Most everyone just accepts the risk of highway accidents as another part of life. 

The same thing, of course, has always occurred in the context of disease, and it is likely to occur in the context of covid-19. As time goes on, more and more Americans will simply accept that the risk of catching various diseases as a part of life. This long ago occurred with the flu which still kills tens of thousands of Americans per year.

When this does finally happen with most of the public in regards to covid-19, the pandemic will be de facto over, although many politicians and bureaucrats will no doubt disagree.  Author:

Contact Ryan McMaken

Ryan McMaken (@ryanmcmaken) is a senior editor at the Mises Institute. Send him your article submissions for the Mises Wire and The Austrian, but read article guidelines first. Ryan has degrees in economics and political science from the University of Colorado and was a housing economist for the State of Colorado. He is the author of Commie Cowboys: The Bourgeoisie and the Nation-State in the Western Genre.

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Erie Times E-Edition Article – Strike Team preps for COVID safety

Posted by M. C. on August 29, 2020

What do think of when you hear STRIKE TEAM!?

Spec ops forces parachuting in with ghostbuster backpacks ready to decimate any virus that crosses their path?

Not in Erie County. It’s painters tape, dots and pool noodles.

Where else but a government agency would you hear pool noodles instead of sunshine, zinc, vitamins C & D to fight a virus.

Here I thought school age children were the least likely to get COVID. Or is it they get COVID and develop immunity, another word you never hear.

Immunity means no control, no power, no mandatory vaccine/digital tattoo/travel passport, no government jobs for those otherwise unoccupied.

Anti-social distance, mask up, keep the fear alive, stifle herd immunity until that 50% or less effective/side effect laden vaccine is swirling through your system.

Next time you hear about a SEAL team performing a mission think, I’ll bet they’re carrying pool noodles.

https://erietimes-pa-app.newsmemory.com/?publink=0f6fcb0d0

The Erie County Strike Team has visited 11 schools this summer

Dan Loewenheim looked down at the floor of an Iroquois Elementary School first-grade classroom Friday morning, then made a suggestion to the administrators and teachers gathered around him.

Visiting 10 other Erie County schools in recent weeks has given Loewenheim some perspective on what districts can do to prepare their buildings for class during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“You can put down some painter’s tape on the floor at the corners of each desk, so you don’t have to remeasure them 6 feet apart each day after the rooms are cleaned,” said Loewenheim, who is an Erie County emergency management specialist. He has toured schools as a member of the new Erie County Department of Health Strike Team.

The team, which consists of employees from the health department and the Erie County Department of Public Safety, was created specifically to help schools reduce the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks.

“This is a unique combination of departments brought together to help schools prepare,” said Erie County Executive Kathy Dahlkemper, who attended the strike team’s visit to Iroquois Elementary on Friday morning.

 

Erie County and Iroquois School District officials show off a classroom Friday at Iroquois Elementary School in Lawrence Park Township that has been prepared for safe COVID-19 protocols. From left are: Karen Barringer, the district’s assistant pandemic coordinator; Dan Loewenheim, emergency management specialist with the Erie County Department of Public Safety; Veronica Will, assistant principal of IES; and Jennifer Foutz, principal of IES. [CHRISTOPHER MILLETTE/ERIE TIMES-NEWS]

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Watch “Herd Immunity Deniers Can’t Bear Sweden’s Truth” on YouTube

Posted by M. C. on August 13, 2020

Across the United States authoritarians are clamoring for a return to lockdown over what they claim is a resurgence of coronavirus infections. Despite the data not supporting that conclusion, they want to shut the economy down and further destroy life in the US. They point to Europe’s success with lockdowns – even as there appears to be a resurgence of cases in Europe. What is most shocking and striking is that no one in authority in the US is calling for us to emulate the one country that appears to have beat the virus thus far: Sweden. Why can’t they even utter the word “Sweden”?
Please help the Liberty Report to keep holding their feet to the fire by making a tax-deductible contribution to the Ron Paul Institute: http://www.RonPaulInstitute.org/support

 

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